New Bulgarian coalition claims victory, Radev’s path to PM requires talks
The New Bulgarian Coalition, led by former President Rumen Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria party, is claiming victory in Bulgaria’s April 19...
President
Trump’s potential Islamabad visit coincides with drop in US-Iran peace deal odds
Trump’s potential visit to Islamabad for talks with Iran’s president has coincided with a sharp drop in peace deal odds....
Trump threatens to destroy Iran’s infrastructure if talks fail
President Trump threatened to destroy Iran’s infrastructure if negotiations fail, pushing the US-Iran ceasefire breakdown market to 99.6% YES, up...
Trump, Iran talks to continue in Islamabad tomorrow amid ceasefire hopes
President Trump announced that negotiations between the US and Iran will continue in Islamabad tomorrow. The market for a ceasefire...
Iran’s Pezeshkian defends nuclear rights, challenges US demands
Iran’s President Pezeshkian affirmed Iran’s nuclear rights under the NPT, challenging US demands. Trump’s agreement to Iranian demands in April...
Iran insists on nuclear rights, complicating US negotiations
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s assertion of Iran’s nuclear rights has complicated US negotiations. The probability of Iran agreeing to end...
Iranian President asserts nuclear rights, impacting April enrichment deal odds
The Iranian President told ISNA that Iran will not give up its nuclear rights, and the market for Iran agreeing...
Iran rejects Trump’s claim on uranium stockpile removal
President Trump announced plans to remove Iran’s enriched uranium stockpiles, but Tehran promptly rejected the claim. The market on Iran...
Japan’s rate hikes pressure yen, BOJ unlikely to cut rates by April 2026
ADB President Masato Kanda warned that Japan’s gradual rate hikes are putting pressure on the yen, and the Polymarket contract...
Trump dismisses Iran’s military, doubts ceasefire extension
President Trump spoke dismissively about Iran’s military capabilities, casting doubt on a ceasefire extension. The odds of a US-Iran permanent...
Iran Slams Trump’s “Seven False Claims” as Hormuz Tensions Rise Again
Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has criticized U.S. President Donald Trump, accusing him of making “seven false claims in...
Iran’s Ghalibaf dismisses Trump’s claims, tensions rise over Hormuz blockade
Iran’s Speaker of the Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, dismissed President Trump’s recent claims as false, pointing to continued friction over...
Trump announces Strait of Hormuz blockade, oil supply disruption expected
President Trump has announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, set to take effect later today, April 18, 2026....
Trump declines NATO aid in Persian Gulf, strains US-Europe ties
US President Donald Trump declined NATO’s offer of assistance in the Persian Gulf, pushing odds of a US withdrawal from...
Hezbollah warns Lebanon’s president against meeting Netanyahu, risking talks
Hezbollah warned Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun against meeting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, putting diplomatic talks at risk. The market...
