Trump Impeachment Odds Rise to 70% on Polymarket Amid Falling Approval and Iran War Concerns
Trump Job Approval Falls to 2026 Lows
To resolve as “Yes,” the outcome must be formally confirmed through the Library of Congress. The market, which launched in late 2025, remains open until an impeachment occurs, and it has drawn notably greater participation, with $1.91 million in recorded volume as of today. Moreover, based on the “Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms” market hosted on Polymarket, traders currently favor a Democratic sweep as the most likely outcome, assigning it 50% odds.
The polling data and prediction market activity point in the same direction. Trump’s approval is slipping, fuel costs are rising, and a meaningful share of market participants are placing real money on impeachment before the term closes. Whether those bets pay off depends on decisions that haven’t been made yet. For now, the numbers reflect where public sentiment stands, and they aren’t favorable to the White House.
FAQ 🔎
- Why is Trump’s approval rating dropping in March 2026? Polls from Reuters/Ipsos, CBS News/YouGov, Rasmussen, and others show Trump’s approval falling to term lows, driven largely by rising gas prices and the ongoing U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran.
- What are the current Trump impeachment odds on Polymarket? Polymarket traders currently assign a 70% probability to Trump being impeached before his term ends, a figure that has climbed 18% in recent sessions.
- How much money has been wagered on Trump impeachment markets? The Kalshi impeachment market has recorded $1.91 million in total volume as of March 2026, reflecting a significant increase in trader participation since the market launched in late 2025.
- What do prediction markets say about the 2026 midterm elections? Polymarket’s Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms market currently favors a Democratic Sweep as the most likely outcome, with traders assigning it 50% odds.
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