Netanyahu’s West Bank annexation plan sparks political instability concerns
## Market Snapshot In the “Netanyahu out by end of 2026?” market, the YES pricing for a June 30 outcome...
outcome
Iran missile strike on US Navy escalates tensions, potential for US response
## Market Snapshot The “US Declaration of War on Iran” market is currently priced at 8.5% for a YES outcome,...
NHL and MLB Sign With Polymarket and Kalshi as Their Unions Ask CFTC to Intervene
Key Takeaways: Player unions for the NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL, and MLS jointly asked the CFTC to ban “negative outcome”...
Iranian missile interceptions in Dubai impact S&P 500 market sentiment
## Market Snapshot The prediction market for the S&P 500’s movement on May 4 currently prices a 0.1% probability of...
IRGC maintains control over Strait of Hormuz, ensuring vessel safety
## Market Snapshot In the “Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Announcement” market, the YES outcome is currently priced at 26%, down from...
NATO deterrence bolstered as German minister affirms strong defense posture
## Market Snapshot Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire market is currently priced at 9.5% for a YES outcome, slightly down from...
UKMTO warns of increased naval activity in Strait of Hormuz amid US-Iran tensions
## Market Snapshot In the “Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Announcement” market, the probability of a YES outcome is currently at 35.5%,...
Netanyahu plea deal talks begin amid corruption trial, potential 2026 exit
## Market Snapshot In the “Netanyahu out by end of 2026?” market, the current odds for a YES outcome are...
Hyperliquid Launches HIP-4 and Targets Polymarket With Zero-Fee Outcome Markets
Key Takeaways:The first HIP-4 outcome market. The fee model is designed to attract volume away from Polymarket and Kalshi. Opening...
Russian attack on Kherson bus kills two, complicates ceasefire prospects
## Market Snapshot Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions for May 31, 2026, are currently priced with a 6.6% chance of a YES...
Iran responds to US deal amendments via Pakistani mediators: Axios
## Market Snapshot The “US-Iran Ceasefire” market currently shows a 0.1% likelihood for a YES outcome, unchanged from the previous...
FCC review of ABC licenses intensifies pressure on Jimmy Kimmel
## Market Snapshot Jimmy Kimmel Fired/Resigns market currently shows a 6.5% probability of a YES outcome by May 31, up...
Iran’s declaration reduces ceasefire odds to 1% by April 7
Iran has announced it will determine the outcome of any conflict against it, causing ceasefire odds by April 7 to...
Trump Impeachment Odds Rise to 70% on Polymarket Amid Falling Approval and Iran War Concerns
Trump Job Approval Falls to 2026 Lows To resolve as “Yes,” the outcome must be formally confirmed through the Library...
Hyperliquid introduces outcome trading via HIP-4 as HYPE jumps over 10%
Hyperliquid is rolling out outcome trading through its HIP-4 protocol upgrade, adding a new derivatives primitive designed for prediction markets...
