What Presidio Bitcoin Found About Quantum Computing: Threat Timeline And Next Steps
Non-profit group Presidio Bitcoin has released a technical report examining the growing quantum computing risk to the Bitcoin network. While that concentration increases the risk profile, Presidio also points out that this portion is reducible without any protocol change. The mitigation is straightforward in concept: rotate to fresh addresses. The remaining structural exposure is different in nature. Presidio estimates 1.72 million BTC sits in legacy pay-to-pubkey (P2PK) outputs, and the report notes that most of those are presumed lost. It also distinguishes another category: addresses that have never been spent and where only a hash of the public key is visible on-chain are not vulnerable at rest under current understanding. A major part of the report is the uncertainty around timing. Presidio stresses that the timeline for CRQCs remains uncertain, with expert surveys placing the probability of cryptographically relevant machines emerging between 2030 and 2035 at about 50%. Even so, Presidio outlines a concrete strategy for Bitcoin network’s path forward. It involves deploying post-quantum signature schemes via a soft fork, rather than a disruptive hard change. The Uncertain Clock For CRQCs
Related Reading
Activation is where timing matters most. Presidio says the Bitcoin ecosystem will likely complete the post-quantum signature activation well before a CRQC threat materializes.
However, Chaincode’s playbook—referenced in the report—places activation around month 6–7 if it does not happen earlier. After activation, migration would follow.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
About Author
