2028 Election Prediction Markets: JD Vance Leads Despite VP’s Historic Approval Low
Key Takeaways: Kalshi‘s 2028 market, with $28.9 million in total volume, shows a similar picture at the top. Vance leads at 21%, Newsom follows at 17%, and Rubio sits third at 13%. On the Democratic side, Ocasio-Cortez holds 6.4%, Jon Ossoff 4.5%, Josh Shapiro 3.6%, and Kamala Harris 3.5%. The Republican bench trails the leaders: Donald Trump sits at 2.6%, Ron DeSantis at 1.9%, and Tucker Carlson at 1.9%. Non-traditional entries include JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon and ESPN analyst Stephen A. Smith, both at 0.9%. Vance retains strong support within the Republican base. That has not changed. But the broader approval numbers and the tightening gap with Newsom on both platforms reflect a political position that is less comfortable than it was 15 months ago. Polling aggregates carry margins of error, and public sentiment can shift quickly. A sound and long-lasting ceasefire in Iran, easing gas prices, or a break in economic anxiety could stabilize the trend line. Midterm dynamics tend to punish the party in power when pocketbook concerns dominate, and right now they do. The 2028 race is still two and a half years away. The betting markets are open, and the field is wide. Vance leads them both, but the margin is thinner by the day.About Author
