Cryptoquant Researchers Warn Bitcoin’s April Rally Mirrors 2022 Bear Market Demand Pattern
Key Takeaways:
The analyst’s phased breakdown of demand data makes the dynamic hard to dispute. Each phase of April’s rally showed higher perpetual futures demand alongside negative spot apparent demand. This was not a case of spot buyers lagging behind and catching up. Spot demand actively contracted as futures activity climbed.
Cryptoquant market strategists note that rallies with this structure tend to be self-limiting. Without fresh spot demand to absorb elevated prices, the unwind of futures positioning becomes the primary driver of the next decline.
The historical parallel Cryptoquant researchers draw is direct and worth taking seriously. The same demand signature appeared at the onset of the 2022 bear market, when perpetual futures demand expanded in isolation while spot apparent demand stayed in contraction. That setup preceded a multi-month price decline. Cryptoquant applies onchain demand decomposition consistently across cycles and identifies this pattern as a reliable early indicator of price fragility.
Bitcoin has already begun pulling back from the April peak. Price slipped from $79,000 to $75,000 following the rally’s high, a move consistent with how futures-led rallies historically resolve once speculative positioning begins to unwind. As of Saturday, May 2, BTC is exchanging hands just above $78,000 after trying again to reach the $80,000 mark.
Cryptoquant’s Bull Score Index declined from 50 to 40 in April, crossing back below the neutral threshold and returning to bearish territory. The index briefly reached 50, neutral ground, in mid-April before sliding to 40 by month’s end despite the 20% price gain during that stretch. Cryptoquant describes a score of 40 as conditions “getting bearish,” placing the market in a range historically associated with continued price weakness.
The Bull Score is a composite index Cryptoquant builds from multiple onchain and market indicators, scaled from 0 to 100. Scores above 50 reflect bullish conditions. Scores below 50 reflect bearish conditions. The market action also coincides with the U.S.-Iran conflict and geopolitical rumblings. Yesterday, Trump said the conflict was over, which gave bitcoin another boost alongside equities.
Cryptoquant analysts conclude that without a reversal in apparent demand from negative to positive territory, any push back toward the $79,000 local peak will lack the on-chain support needed to produce a sustained breakout.
The data does not guarantee a repeat of 2022’s prolonged downturn, but Cryptoquant makes clear the current demand structure matches the historical profile of price fragility, not accumulation.
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