Polymarket Traders Give Bitcoin 31% Chance of Hitting $80,000 This Month
Key Takeaways: Myriad offers a simpler framing: $84,000 pump or $55,000 dump, whichever comes first on Binance spot. Current odds favor the pump at 60.7%, with the dump scenario at 39.3%. Total volume is $125,000. The market uses 1-minute candle close prices on Tradingview and has been live since February 5, 2026. These markets show a crowd that expects bitcoin to recover but is not convinced it happens fast. The most probable near-term move in April is a push toward $80,000. The most probable outcome by year-end is $80,000 cleared, with meaningful doubt above $90,000. For options traders watching this data, coinglass.com stats show call buyers targeting $80,000 are working with roughly a one-in-three probability from the crowd. Put buyers watching $65,000 are working with a 13% consensus risk. In the end-of-year picture, $80,000 calls carry the crowd’s confidence at 81%, while $55,000 puts draw a 60% probability of touching that level at some point before December 31.About Author
