Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon escalate tensions with Iran
## Market Snapshot The market for “Iran closes its airspace by May 8?” is currently priced at 14.5% YES, down...
Iran
US to cut troop presence in Germany, signaling potential de-escalation with Iran
## Market Snapshot The market for “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?” is currently assessing a decreased likelihood, with...
UAE resumes full air traffic as Iran airspace closure odds fall
## Market Snapshot The “Iran closes its airspace by May 8” market is currently priced at 16.5% YES, down from...
Starlink Usage Turns Fatal in Iran Internet Blackout
Key Takeaways: Afshin Kolahi, a member of Iran’s Chamber of Commerce, estimates that the blockade has caused daily economic losses...
US blockade cripples Iranian economy despite fragile ceasefire
## Market Snapshot The market for “Iran closes its airspace by May 8” is currently priced at 20.5% YES, down...
Iran rejects US proposal, reduces odds of near-term diplomatic meeting
## Market Snapshot Next US x Iran Diplomatic Meeting: The market is currently observing decreased odds for an imminent meeting,...
Iran criticizes Europe over nuclear deal, diplomatic tensions rise
## Market Snapshot Activity around the “Iran Uranium Enrichment Agreement” shows a current pricing of 9.5% YES, down from 14%...
Iran-US hostilities expected to resume, impacting Hormuz blockade market
## Market Snapshot The “Next US x Iran Diplomatic Meeting” market currently has an uncertain YES pricing for dates around...
Trump reviews Iran proposal amid potential diplomatic shift
## Market Snapshot The “next US x Iran diplomatic meeting” market is currently inactive with no recent volume, awaiting developments....
US considers further military action against Iran amid missile threat
## Market Snapshot The “Iran Leadership Status by End of 2026” market is currently active with sub-markets showing uncertainty in...
Trump warns of potential US strikes on Iran if they “misbehave”
## Market Snapshot The “US Invasion of Iran” market currently indicates increased likelihood of military action, with a shift in...
Trump rejects Iran proposal, keeps Hormuz blockade amid tensions
## Market Snapshot The “next US x Iran diplomatic meeting” market is currently evaluating the likelihood of a meeting on...
US-Iran diplomatic meeting odds drop after $9B arms deal
## Market Snapshot In the “Next US x Iran Diplomatic Meeting” market, the arms deal news has decreased the likelihood...
Spirit Airlines shuts down amid US-Iran-Israel conflict and rising fuel costs
## Market Snapshot “Will Iran strike Israel by April 30, 2026?” is now resolved at 100% YES. The “fall of...
Trump calls for war with Iran to stop nuclear threat
## Market Snapshot The market for a US declaration of war on Iran by December 31, 2026, is currently priced...
