Iran’s supreme leader rejects concessions as US weighs military options
## Market Snapshot Next US x Iran Diplomatic Meeting market shows pricing supportive of NO, with recent developments suggesting decreased...
Iran
Iran accuses US of strikes during talks, military tensions rise
## Market Snapshot Next US x Iran Diplomatic Meeting market currently appears to have decreased YES pricing due to recent...
Trump briefed on military options as Iran conflict escalates
## Market Snapshot The “US Invasion of Iran” market is currently observing increased activity, with pricing supportive of a YES...
Iran rejects US demands, Supreme Leader approves talks amid internal unity
## Market Snapshot Next US x Iran Diplomatic Meeting market is currently reflecting decreased confidence in a near-term meeting following...
White House considers seeking war authorization for Iran conflict
## Market Snapshot US Declaration of War on Iran market shows a YES pricing of 8.5%, up from 8% in...
Pentagon pauses War Powers clock amid Iran ceasefire, de-escalation efforts
## Market Snapshot The market for a U.S. declaration of war on Iran by December 31, 2026, is currently priced...
Israel deploys advanced defense systems to UAE amid Iran tensions
## Market Snapshot The “Iran Military Action” market is priced at 100% YES for military action by Iran against Israel...
CENTCOM plans targeted strikes on Iran amid military escalation talks
CENTCOM’s plan for short, powerful strikes on Iran has pushed discussion of military escalation, though the market for UK strikes...
Iran tensions push oil prices above $120, potential for further increases
Geopolitical tensions around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil prices past $120 per barrel, with the WTI...
US war in Iran costs $25B, impacting Fed rate cut expectations for 2026
Pentagon reports the US war in Iran has cost $25 billion so far, while the Fed Rate Cuts Predictions for...
US-Iran talks stall, Hormuz blockade resolution unlikely by May 31
Talks between the US and Iran have stalled, pushing the Polymarket odds for the US lifting the Strait of Hormuz...
Trump discusses new Iran proposal with national security aides
Trump met with national security aides to discuss a new Iran proposal. The odds of a U.S. invasion of Iran...
Brent Crude Climbs Above $115 as Trump Signals Longer Iran Naval Blockade
Key Takeaways:Brent crude at 11:18 a.m. ET on Wednesday. The average price for a gallon of regular gas has hit...
If UN Notes Are Not Enough: What Counts as Evidence in Decentralized Markets?
The evidence problem behind the Polymarket disputeThe dispute around Polymarket’s “US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026” market...
Iran, Hezbollah regroup during Israel ceasefire, warns Israeli spokesperson
Israeli spokesperson Conricus warns that Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas are using the current ceasefire to regroup and prepare for further...
