Beijing defies US sanctions, escalating tensions ahead of Trump-Xi summit
## Market Snapshot Trump’s Visit to China market shows 0.4% YES for May 3, 2026, as participants weigh geopolitical tensions....
market
Russia intercepts 270 Ukrainian drones amid ongoing conflict
## Market Snapshot In the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions market, the likelihood of a ceasefire by May 31, 2026, is currently...
Hormuz deadlock persists as Trump faces War Powers deadline
## Market Snapshot The market for “Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz...
Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, oil prices surge amid US-Iran conflict
## Market Snapshot In the “Fed Rate Cuts Predictions for 2026” market, current pricing shows uncertainty with no clear YES...
Trump dismisses Iran proposal, signals continued diplomatic impasse
## Market Snapshot The market assessing whether the US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31 is currently priced at...
Trump reviews Iran proposal amid potential diplomatic shift
## Market Snapshot The “next US x Iran diplomatic meeting” market is currently inactive with no recent volume, awaiting developments....
Spirit Airlines ceases operations amid financial struggles and rising fuel costs
## Market Snapshot The Spirit Airlines shutdown market is currently priced at 100% YES for a shutdown or liquidation by...
US considers further military action against Iran amid missile threat
## Market Snapshot The “Iran Leadership Status by End of 2026” market is currently active with sub-markets showing uncertainty in...
Iran accuses US of piracy over seized oil tankers amid Hormuz tensions
## Market Snapshot Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Announcement market shows 32.5% YES, down from 40% in the last 24 hours. US-Iran...
Trump warns of potential US strikes on Iran if they “misbehave”
## Market Snapshot The “US Invasion of Iran” market currently indicates increased likelihood of military action, with a shift in...
Iran maintains Hormuz blockade, impacting global oil shipments
## Market Snapshot The “Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization” market is currently priced at a level suggesting diminished expectations for...
Supertanker crosses Strait of Hormuz, hinting at traffic normalization
## Market Snapshot The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization market is seeing increased activity, with implications of a potential move...
Hezbollah escalates conflict with Israel using fibre-optic drones in Lebanon
## Market Snapshot The “Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026” market is currently priced at 9.5% YES, down...
Trump rejects Iran proposal, keeps Hormuz blockade amid tensions
## Market Snapshot The “next US x Iran diplomatic meeting” market is currently evaluating the likelihood of a meeting on...
Trump fast-tracks $8.6B arms deal to Middle East amid Iran tensions: FT
## Market Snapshot WTI Crude Oil Prices in May 2026 market is currently priced at uncertain YES. The US-Iran nuclear...
