Hezbollah resurgence complicates Israeli withdrawal, US-Iran ceasefire talks
## Market Snapshot In the “Israel Withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026” market, the YES pricing has decreased to...
market
Spirit Airlines shuts down amid US-Iran-Israel conflict and rising fuel costs
## Market Snapshot “Will Iran strike Israel by April 30, 2026?” is now resolved at 100% YES. The “fall of...
US C-17 lands in Beijing, signaling preparations for Trump’s China visit in May
## Market Snapshot The market for Trump’s visit to China by May 1 currently shows 0.1% YES, with prices unchanged...
Fighting escalates in Ukraine’s Kostiantynivka, challenging ceasefire hopes
## Market Snapshot Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions for April 30, 2026, currently reflect 0.1% YES pricing, unchanged from 24 hours ago....
Trump calls for war with Iran to stop nuclear threat
## Market Snapshot The market for a US declaration of war on Iran by December 31, 2026, is currently priced...
Trump calls US Navy actions “piracy” amid Hormuz blockade tensions
## Market Snapshot Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Announcement market is currently priced at 39.5% YES, down from 44% in the last...
Bitcoin ETF Inflows Surge as BlackRock Adds $284M in One Day
Bitcoin is quietly pulling big money back into the market as institutional investors increase exposure through spot Bitcoin ETFs. Asset...
Iran’s internet blackout enters tenth week amid ongoing conflict
## Market Snapshot The Iranian regime fall market for June 30 is currently priced at 6.5% YES, down from 8%...
US approves $8.6B arms package for Israel, Qatar amid rising tensions
## Market Snapshot US-Iran Ceasefire market currently prices at 0.1% YES, down from 6% a week ago. The WTI Crude...
US pushes Aoun-Netanyahu meeting for Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon
## Market Snapshot The market for “Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026” is currently priced at 9% YES,...
Iran-backed militias attack US-UK base in Iraq 28 times before ceasefire
## Market Snapshot Iran Military Action market is currently priced at 100% YES for an Iranian strike on Israel by...
Pentagon pushes AI-first strategy, boosting Anthropic Mythos prospects
## Market Snapshot Anthropic Mythos Provision to US Government: Currently priced at 100% YES for April 30, 2026. The market...
Bitcoin forecasted to drop to $59,000 amid geopolitical tensions: Kalshi
## Market Snapshot Bitcoin Price Predictions for April 30 are currently priced at 0.1% YES for reaching $79,000, reflecting a...
Russian attack on Kherson bus kills two, complicates ceasefire prospects
## Market Snapshot Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions for May 31, 2026, are currently priced with a 6.6% chance of a YES...
Trump rejects Iran peace proposal, reinforcing US-Iran diplomatic stalemate
## Market Snapshot The US-Iran ceasefire market is currently priced at 0.1% YES, down from 1% in the last 24...
