China urges reopening of Strait of Hormuz amid US-Iran tensions
## Market Snapshot The Strait of Hormuz traffic market shows a 7.3% YES pricing for normalization by May 15, up...
Prediction Markets
US adopts pre-verification AI policy amid China competition
## Market Snapshot Anthropic Mythos Provision to U.S. Government: Currently priced at 100% YES across all sub-markets for April 30,...
Trump pauses ‘Project Freedom’ in Hormuz amid Pakistan mediation efforts
## Market Snapshot The current market for Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Announcement is priced at 58.5% YES, up from 26% 24...
Iran considers sending enriched uranium to US amid negotiation talks
## Market Snapshot Iran’s potential uranium transfer to the U.S. has impacted several prediction markets. The “Iran Uranium Enrichment Agreement”...
Russian drones enter Romanian airspace, escalating NATO tensions
## Market Snapshot The market for “Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?” currently prices at 1.6%...
Bitcoin nears $82,000 as oil drops 6% on US-Iran peace talks hopes
## Market Snapshot The market for “Bitcoin Price Above on May 7” currently reflects 99.9% YES, consistent with recent high...
US escorts ships through GPS-jammed Strait of Hormuz amid rising tensions
## Market Snapshot The Strait of Hormuz ship transit market currently prices an 83% likelihood of 20 ships transiting on...
Iran seeks comprehensive agreement with US amid diplomatic overtures
## Market Snapshot Next US x Iran Diplomatic Meeting market is currently showing increased activity, with pricing suggesting a higher...
Iran seeks comprehensive agreement with US amid diplomatic overtures
## Market Snapshot Next US x Iran Diplomatic Meeting market is currently showing increased activity, with pricing suggesting a higher...
Iran seeks comprehensive agreement with US amid diplomatic overtures
## Market Snapshot Next US x Iran Diplomatic Meeting market is currently showing increased activity, with pricing suggesting a higher...
Iran seeks comprehensive agreement with US amid diplomatic overtures
## Market Snapshot Next US x Iran Diplomatic Meeting market is currently showing increased activity, with pricing suggesting a higher...
Iran rejects US threats, leadership stability likely through 2026
## Market Snapshot In the “Iran Leadership Status by End of 2026” market, current pricing suggests decreased likelihood of a...
Iran rejects US threats, leadership stability likely through 2026
## Market Snapshot In the “Iran Leadership Status by End of 2026” market, current pricing suggests decreased likelihood of a...
Iran rejects US threats, leadership stability likely through 2026
## Market Snapshot In the “Iran Leadership Status by End of 2026” market, current pricing suggests decreased likelihood of a...
Strait of Hormuz remains closed amid US-Iran blockades
## Market Snapshot The market for “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15” is currently priced at...
