Labour faces historic losses as Reform UK leads polls ahead of May 2026 elections
## Market Snapshot The “Starmer out by June 30, 2026?” market on Polymarket is currently priced at 39.5% YES, reflecting...
Prediction Markets
Romanian PM Bolojan likely to exit after government collapse
## Market Snapshot Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31? market is currently priced at 99.6% YES, a significant increase...
Pentagon labels Anthropic a supply chain risk amid AI policy shift
## Market Snapshot Anthropic Mythos Provision to US Government market is currently priced at 100% YES for all sub-markets. Recent...
US aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush conducts operations in Arabian Sea
## Market Snapshot The market assessing whether 20 ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May...
Maersk ship transits Strait of Hormuz under US military escort amid tensions
## Market Snapshot Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Announcement market is currently priced at 25.5% YES, reflecting a decrease from 34% just...
US-Iran tensions drive rupee to record low, impact oil and Bitcoin markets
## Market Snapshot The Bitcoin price market for May 7 is currently priced at 99.8% YES, slightly down from 100%...
Iran missile strike on US Navy escalates tensions, potential for US response
## Market Snapshot The “US Declaration of War on Iran” market is currently priced at 8.5% for a YES outcome,...
$226M in crypto short positions liquidated amid US-Iran-Israel tensions
## Market Snapshot Bitcoin price predictions for May 8 are currently priced at 99.6% YES, down slightly from 100% 24...
Trump ends hostilities with Iran, reducing pressure on presidency
## Market Snapshot The “Trump Out as President before 2027” market currently exhibits pricing supportive of a NO outcome, following...
IRGC tightens control over Persian Gulf, impacting Strait of Hormuz transit
## Market Snapshot Kharg Island Control Changes: Current pricing shows 11.5% YES for June 30 and 7.5% YES for May...
Israeli cities open shelters amid rising threat of Iranian attacks
## Market Snapshot The market for “Will Iran strike Israel by April 30, 2026?” is currently priced at 100% YES....
Spirit Airlines to cease operations after failed bailout talks
## Market Snapshot The market for Spirit Airlines’ potential shutdown by May 31 is currently priced at 100% YES. This...
Bitcoin, Ethereum ETFs see $593M inflows amid geopolitical tensions
## Market Snapshot Bitcoin Price on May 4 is currently priced at 0.1% YES for being less than $68,000, unchanged...
Iran accuses US of killing civilians, raising airspace closure risks
## Market Snapshot Iran’s airspace closure market shows a 22.5% YES probability for closure by May 8, up from 14%...
Iran threatens European bases amid rising geopolitical tensions
## Market Snapshot Fall of the Iranian Regime market currently shows a 2.6% YES probability for May 31, indicating a...
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