CFTC Sues Wisconsin Over Prediction Market Ban
Key Takeaways: The CFTC sued Wisconsin on April 28, 2026, defending Kalshi and Polymarket against state gambling law enforcement. Wisconsin...
Prediction Markets
IDF destroys Hezbollah’s largest tunnel network amid ceasefire stability
The IDF announced the destruction of Hezbollah’s largest tunnel network in southern Lebanon, a development that coincides with the Israel...
Netanyahu’s stance dims hopes for Israel-Iran peace deal by April 30
Prime Minister Netanyahu’s assertion of continued hostilities with Iran casts doubt on a swift resolution. The odds of an Israel-Iran...
US confirms partial reopening of Strait of Hormuz, easing oil supply fears
Energy Secretary Chris Wright confirmed a quick reopening of the Strait of Hormuz via a safe shipping corridor. The market...
Alphabet’s $175B-$185B AI capex plan doubles prior levels amid antitrust scrutiny
Alphabet’s capex for FY 2026 is projected at $175–$185 billion, doubling prior levels to expand AI infrastructure, while the company...
US reviews Iran proposal as Israel-Iran peace talks stall
The likelihood of an Israel-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 has dropped to 0.7% YES, down from 3% just...
Iran allows Japanese supertanker through Strait of Hormuz, easing supply fears
Iran let a Japanese supertanker carrying 2 million barrels of oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz, signaling selective de-escalation....
Hezbollah claims strike on Israeli tank in south Lebanon amid ceasefire tension
Hezbollah says it hit an Israeli Merkava tank in south Lebanon. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30 market...
Qatar warns Iran against using it as ‘political punching bag’ amid talks
Qatar has warned Iran not to use it as a “political punching bag,” signaling a push for diplomacy. The market...
Russia to recruit 18,500 foreign fighters by 2026, signals prolonged conflict
Ukrainian intelligence reports that Russia plans to recruit 18,500 foreigners to fill its military ranks in 2026. The ceasefire-by-end-of-2027 market...
Gulf leaders meet in Saudi Arabia to address Iranian missile attacks
Gulf leaders are gathering in Saudi Arabia to coordinate a response to Iranian missile attacks. The Polymarket odds of Kharg...
Iran asserts full control over Strait of Hormuz, raising oil flow concerns
The Iranian Army has confirmed full control of the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns over global oil flow disruptions. Strait...
UAE to exit OPEC on May 1, crude oil could hit $90 by June
The United Arab Emirates announced it will leave OPEC starting May 1, and the Crude Oil Price Predictions by End...
Germany’s Merz criticizes US handling of Iran talks, fueling European frustration
Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz criticized the U.S. for its handling of negotiations with Iran, calling it “humiliated” by the regime....
IDF demolishes Bint Jbeil Stadium, Hezbollah symbol in southern Lebanon
The IDF demolished Bint Jbeil Stadium in southern Lebanon, the site where Hassan Nasrallah delivered his 2000 “cobweb” speech. The...
