Five officials exit Trump’s Cabinet amid Iran conflict
At least five officials have exited President Trump’s Cabinet and U.S. military leadership since the Iran conflict began. The market...
Prediction Markets
Israel prioritizes Iran threat amid Reza Pahlavi speculation
Israel is focusing on its confrontation with Iran as the top threat, with the Polymarket contract on “Reza Pahlavi entering...
Brent oil tops $105 on unconfirmed Iran parliament speaker resignation report
Brent oil prices surged past $105 on an unconfirmed report that Iran’s parliament speaker resigned from the US-Iran negotiation team,...
Trump orders US Navy to shoot vessels laying mines in Strait of Hormuz
Donald Trump has instructed the US Navy to “shoot and kill” any vessels laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz....
Iran’s Qalibaf warns aggressors, asserts regime unity and stability
Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf declared Iran’s unity under its leadership, threatening any aggressors with regret. The probability of...
US oil prices surge above $98 as US-Iran peace talks stall
US oil prices have jumped over $98 per barrel due to stalled US-Iran peace talks, but the Polymarket contract on...
US-Iran tensions rise as peace deal odds fall amid conflict fears
Israeli reports point to a renewed US-Iran conflict, with Trump potentially forced to act despite his reluctance. The market for...
SpaceX files confidentially for IPO, potential $2T valuation
SpaceX’s confidential SEC filing for an IPO has pushed the June 30, 2026 market to 70.5% YES, up from 68%...
US blockade of Strait of Hormuz deemed successful, expert counters media reports
A maritime expert has asserted that the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is largely successful, countering recent media...
Iran’s Ghalibaf resigns from negotiating team, impacting peace deal prospects
Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has resigned from the negotiating team, per Israel’s N12 News. The permanent US-Iran peace...
Israeli airstrike in Lebanon breaches ceasefire, risks Netanyahu coalition tension
An Israeli airstrike in southern Lebanon has reportedly violated the ongoing ceasefire, according to Lebanese sources, pushing odds of Benjamin...
Iran’s parliament speaker resigns from negotiating team amid unity call
Iranian President Pezeshkian posted on X calling for national unity under a “revolutionary” stance, while Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf resigned from...
US energy chief calls Iran a long-term threat to global energy supplies
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright called Iran a “threat to global energy supplies for 47 years.” On Polymarket, the odds...
IDF blocks civilian return amid Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire violation claims
The IDF is blocking civilian returns to southern Lebanon as Israel and Hezbollah trade accusations of ceasefire violations. The June...
Pentagon: Clearing Strait of Hormuz mines to take 6 months, oil at $95/barrel
The Pentagon has informed Congress that clearing mines from the Strait of Hormuz will take six months, with oil prices...
