US Navy seizes Iranian ship in Gulf of Oman: WSJ
The US Navy seized an Iranian-flagged ship in the Gulf of Oman, per the Wall Street Journal. The Polymarket contract...
Prediction Markets
Morgan Stanley launches fund for stablecoin issuers under GENIUS Act compliance
Morgan Stanley has launched the Stablecoin Reserves Portfolio, a government money market fund built for stablecoin issuers, structured to comply...
US-sanctioned Iranian oil tanker attempts Strait of Hormuz crossing
A US-sanctioned supertanker loaded with Iranian oil moved to cross the Strait of Hormuz while the waterway remained largely closed....
Bitcoin ETFs see $223M inflow for eighth consecutive day
Bitcoin ETFs attracted $223M for the eighth consecutive day, while Ethereum ETFs recorded a $75.9M outflow that broke a 10-day...
Trump confirms three-week Israel-Lebanon ceasefire extension
Trump confirmed a three-week extension of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire. The market on whether Trump would endorse an Israeli ceasefire in...
Kelp DAO exploit drains 116,500 rsETH, impacts Ethereum-linked protocols
The Kelp DAO exploit drained 116,500 rsETH and sent shockwaves through DeFi protocols, pushing the odds of Ethereum hitting $4,000...
Naval tensions in Red Sea weigh on Bitcoin sentiment amid geopolitical risks
A truce between Israel and Hamas holds, but naval tensions in the Red Sea are escalating. The April 30 sub-market...
Japan’s 40-year bond yield rises amid fiscal stress concerns
Japan’s 40-year government bond yield rose to 3.86%, up 3.5 basis points, while the Polymarket probability of a Bank of...
Eurozone Bitcoin CPI rises 18.2% in March, impacting purchasing power
Samara Asset Group reported an 18.2% rise in the Eurozone Bitcoin CPI for March, meaning Bitcoin’s purchasing power fell against...
Graham backs Iran blockade strategy with Trump, Hegseth amid nuclear deal collapse
Lindsey Graham’s endorsement of the Iran blockade strategy alongside Trump and Hegseth signals sustained conflict. The odds for a US-Iran...
US maintains pressure on Iran, unlikely to ease oil sanctions by April 30
US Senator Eric Schmitt emphasized Washington’s strategy of “apply pressure, create leverage, then negotiate” with Iran, and the likelihood of...
Lebanon alleges war crime after Israeli strike kills journalist Amal Khalil
Lebanese authorities have alleged a war crime following an Israeli strike that killed journalist Amal Khalil. The probability of an...
UK in talks with Anthropic to deploy AI model for bank cybersecurity
The UK government is in discussions with Anthropic to deploy its Claude Mythos AI model for cybersecurity in British banks,...
Iran deposits first Hormuz toll fees, complicating quick resolution prospects
Iran has deposited its first toll fees from the Strait of Hormuz into its Central Bank. The odds of 80...
US mediates Israel-Lebanon talks, seeks end to Iran conflict: WSJ
US officials are negotiating to end the war with Iran and mediating between Israel and Lebanon on distinct tracks, according...
