German business sentiment hits 2020 low amid Iran war, energy crisis
Germany’s Ifo business sentiment index fell to 84.4 in April, its lowest reading since 2020, amid the 2026 Iran war...
Prediction Markets
Trump-Xi summit confirmed for May 14-15 in Beijing
The Trump-Xi summit is set for May 14-15 in Beijing. “Will Trump visit China by May 31?” sits at 74%...
Israeli media alleges IDF looting in Lebanon, complicates ceasefire talks
Israeli media has reported allegations of IDF soldiers looting in Lebanon, with both the Trump endorsement of an Israeli ceasefire...
China denies Trump’s claim of Iranian ship as ‘gift,’ complicating visit plans
China has dismissed President Trump’s claim that an intercepted Iranian ship was a “gift from China.” The diplomatic dispute has...
White House press secretary Leavitt steps back for maternity leave
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt will step back from her duties for maternity leave, effectively killing the market for...
OpenAI releases GPT-5.5, market resolves YES
OpenAI released GPT-5.5 on April 23, 2026, resolving the April 30 market at 100% YES. The April 23 market jumped...
US wheat prices hit highest since June 2024 amid drought, Hormuz closure
U.S. wheat prices have surged to their highest levels since June 2024, driven by severe drought in key agricultural states...
Delaware Senate passes Payment Stablecoins Act, moves to House
Delaware’s Senate passed the Delaware Payment Stablecoins Act 20-1, sending the bill to the House. The legislation mirrors the federal...
Witkoff and Kushner to meet Iranian FM in Pakistan for diplomatic talks
White House Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will travel to Pakistan for talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas...
China’s DeepSeek AI model challenges US firms, impacts Anthropic’s market position
China’s DeepSeek released a new flagship AI model, intensifying competition with US firms. Anthropic’s odds of having the third-best AI...
Bitcoin exchange reserves hit 5-year low as BlackRock absorbs 9x daily output
Bitcoin exchange reserves hit 2.3 million BTC, the lowest level since 2018, while BlackRock’s IBIT absorbs roughly 2,100 BTC per...
Trump orders US Navy to target mines in Strait of Hormuz
President Trump has ordered the US Navy to target mines in the Strait of Hormuz, and the Polymarket contract on...
USDT delisted from European exchanges as MiCA takes effect
USDT has been delisted from major European exchanges following the full implementation of MiCA, Europe’s stablecoin regulation. The market for...
$344M USDT on Tron linked to Iran frozen, adding financial pressure
$344 million worth of USDT on the Tron network, allegedly tied to the Iranian regime, has been frozen. Odds for...
Crude oil market doubts US capacity to offset supply disruptions
The market for crude oil hitting an all-time high by April 30 sits at 1% YES, down from 3% a...
