Russian, UAE ministers push for renewed Middle East peace talks
Russian and UAE foreign ministers are calling for renewed talks aimed at a Middle East agreement. The Israel-Iran permanent peace...
Prediction Markets
DOJ drops Powell probe, clearing path for Warsh’s Fed Chair confirmation
The Justice Department has dropped its investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, removing the main obstacle to Kevin Warsh’s...
Pentagon ousters fail to shift UK strike odds on Iran
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has ousted the Army Chief of Staff and the Joint Chiefs Chairman, but the market for...
Senator Wicker urges military action over Iran negotiations amid ceasefire
Senator Roger Wicker is calling for an end to negotiations with Iran and pushing for military action instead. The Trump-Iran...
SLB, Baker Hughes boost oil exploration amid Iran war supply concerns
Oil exploration spending is expected to rise as SLB and Baker Hughes react to the ongoing Iran war’s impact on...
Iranian regime projects unity, reducing collapse expectations
Iran’s leadership is projecting unity following Trump’s remarks, pushing the probability of the Iranian regime falling by May 31 down...
Chevron CEO: Naval escorts needed for Strait of Hormuz reopening
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said naval escorts will be required when the Strait of Hormuz reopens. The market for Strait...
US considers expelling Spain from NATO over Iran stance
Reports that the US is contemplating expelling Spain from NATO for not backing military action against Iran have drawn attention...
US missile use in Iran strains Taiwan defense readiness
Reports that the US has used thousands of missiles in Iran, straining its defense readiness for Taiwan, have pushed China...
US sanctions Chinese refinery, shipping firms over Iranian oil
The US sanctioned a Chinese oil refinery and several shipping firms transporting Iranian oil, increasing pressure on Tehran. The Polymarket...
Iran denies US claims of direct talks request, Tasnim calls it “lies”
The IRGC-linked Tasnim News Agency dismissed US claims of Iran requesting direct talks in Islamabad as “lies.” The odds of...
Iran seizes containership in Strait of Hormuz, escalating US tensions
Iran’s seizure of the containership Epaminondas in the Strait of Hormuz has escalated tensions with the US. The odds of...
Trump orders Navy to target mine-laying boats in Strait of Hormuz
President Trump ordered the U.S. Navy to shoot boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, and the market for...
Justice Department closes Powell probe, clearing path for Warsh Fed nomination
The Justice Department has closed its investigation into Jerome Powell, removing the main obstacle to the Senate confirming Kevin Warsh...
GPT-5.5 release by June 2026 seen as certain, markets confidence
OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 release market for June 30, 2026, sits at 100% YES, unchanged from yesterday, after reported gains in capability...
