Israeli cities open shelters amid rising threat of Iranian attacks
## Market Snapshot The market for “Will Iran strike Israel by April 30, 2026?” is currently priced at 100% YES....
Prediction Markets
Spirit Airlines to cease operations after failed bailout talks
## Market Snapshot The market for Spirit Airlines’ potential shutdown by May 31 is currently priced at 100% YES. This...
Bitcoin, Ethereum ETFs see $593M inflows amid geopolitical tensions
## Market Snapshot Bitcoin Price on May 4 is currently priced at 0.1% YES for being less than $68,000, unchanged...
Iran accuses US of killing civilians, raising airspace closure risks
## Market Snapshot Iran’s airspace closure market shows a 22.5% YES probability for closure by May 8, up from 14%...
Iran threatens European bases amid rising geopolitical tensions
## Market Snapshot Fall of the Iranian Regime market currently shows a 2.6% YES probability for May 31, indicating a...
Iran solidifies stance on Hormuz amid US blockade tensions
## Market Snapshot The market for “Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz...
Bitmine stakes $10.2B in Ethereum amid geopolitical tensions
## Market Snapshot Ethereum Price on May 5 market shows a 99.9% probability of resolving YES, indicating strong confidence in...
US destroyers cross Strait of Hormuz under Iranian fire, escalating tensions
## Market Snapshot The “US Invasion of Iran” market reflects a heightened likelihood of escalation, with pricing suggesting increased probabilities...
South Korean vessel explosion adds to Strait of Hormuz instability
## Market Snapshot Strait of Hormuz Traffic Normalization market is currently observing decreased YES pricing, with the likelihood of normalization...
Geopolitical tensions in Hormuz impact ECB rate cut expectations for April 2026
## Market Snapshot ECB Interest Rates April 2026 market currently shows 100% YES for a 50+ bps decrease. Market activity...
Bitcoin surges past $81,000 amid US-Iran tensions, reinforcing safe-haven status
## Market Snapshot In the market for “Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 7?”, the current...
Prediction Market Traders Push April 2026 Volume to $8.6B, Kalshi Takes the Lead
Key Takeaways:Image source: DuneImage source: Dune Open interest across the sector stood at $1.11 billion as of May 1, 2026....
Iran tensions rise as hackers leak US Navy officer data in Persian Gulf
## Market Snapshot Strait of Hormuz Traffic Normalization is priced at lower likelihood for YES outcomes, with significant decline in...
Iran tensions rise as hackers leak US Navy officer data in Persian Gulf
## Market Snapshot Strait of Hormuz Traffic Normalization is priced at lower likelihood for YES outcomes, with significant decline in...
US Spot Bitcoin ETFs acquire $532.3M in Bitcoin amid regulatory clarity push
## Market Snapshot Bitcoin price on May 4 market is priced at 0.1% YES for being less than $68,000. This...
