Hezbollah rejects direct talks with Israel, impacting Lebanon withdrawal outlook
## Market Snapshot Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon by June 30, 2026, is currently priced at 9.5% YES, down from 10%...
Prediction Markets
Iran publishes new map asserting control over Strait of Hormuz
## Market Snapshot Iran’s publication of a new map by the IRGC has impacted markets related to the Strait of...
Iran reviews US peace proposal aiming to halt ongoing conflict
## Market Snapshot The market on the fall of the Iranian regime before 2027 shows a 2.8% YES probability, down...
Iran conflict disrupts oil supply, Endeavour warns of higher costs
## Market Snapshot WTI Crude Oil Prices in May 2026 currently lack a definitive YES pricing, reflecting uncertainty in reaching...
ECB unlikely to cut rates in April 2026 amid inflation, supply chain pressures
## Market Snapshot ECB Interest Rates April 2026 market has seen a shift toward pricing supportive of a hold or...
Turkey inflation data impacts US Fed rate cut expectations for June 2026
## Market Snapshot The “Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting” market is currently priced at 4.5% YES, up from...
Meta faces New Mexico lawsuit over child safety on Facebook, Instagram
## Market Snapshot Market: Meta Platforms Stock Price Predictions Current Pricing: 100% YES for a $740 high during the week...
US launches “Project Freedom” naval mission amid Hormuz tensions
## Market Snapshot Strait of Hormuz Traffic Normalization: Priced at ? YES with 57 days left, suggesting uncertainty. US Invasion...
Chinese hackers target Cuban embassy amid US-China tensions
## Market Snapshot In the market for “Will Donald Trump visit China on May 5, 2026?”, the current pricing is...
Middle East tensions may trigger oil market shock, says Bank of France head
## Market Snapshot Bitcoin Price Above on May 7 market is priced at 99.9% YES, indicating little change from previous...
Middle East tensions drive oil above $100, impacting global inflation outlook
## Market Snapshot In the ECB interest rate market for April 2026, the probability for a 50+ bps decrease remains...
NATO chief signals improved US-Europe ties, reducing withdrawal likelihood
## Market Snapshot The “US Withdrawal from NATO Timeline” market currently prices at 1.7% YES for a June 30 resolution,...
Iran maintains operational constraints on Strait of Hormuz amid tensions
## Market Snapshot The market for WTI Crude Oil prices in May 2026 shows uncertainty, with odds unreported for the...
Russian soldier desertions highlight morale issues amid Ukraine conflict
## Market Snapshot In the market for whether Russia will capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026, the current pricing is...
Bitcoin tops $80,000 as Clarity Act nears Senate vote, new Fed chair expected
## Market Snapshot Bitcoin markets are pricing a 99.9% probability that its price will remain above $66,000 on May 7,...
