US intelligence reports limited new damage to Iran’s nuclear program
## Market Snapshot The “US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31” market is priced at 14.5% YES, slightly higher from 14%...
Prediction Markets
Iranian drone attacks on UAE pressure US bond market, yields surge
## Market Snapshot Ethereum Price on May 5 is priced at 100% YES across all sub-markets, suggesting stability despite geopolitical...
Bitcoin surpasses $80k amid low on-chain activity, up 22% in 5 weeks
## Market Snapshot In the Bitcoin Price on May 4 market, the probability of Bitcoin being less than $68,000 is...
Oil prices surge as US-Israel-Iran tensions disrupt supply routes
## Market Snapshot Crude oil price predictions for June are currently priced at 100% YES for hitting $90, reflecting consistent...
Qatar condemns Iran attack on UAE, strengthens Gulf unity
## Market Snapshot UAE and Qatar Diplomatic Relations in 2026 market is currently priced at a lower likelihood of YES....
Spirit Airlines shuts down, JetBlue offers rescue fares after bailout denial
## Market Snapshot The “Spirit Airlines shutdown/liquidation by May 31” market is currently priced at 100% YES. This reflects a...
US economic indicators hit 0.84, matching 2008 crisis low
## Market Snapshot Fed Rate Cuts Predictions for 2026 are currently showing no specific YES/NO pricing, with 241 days left...
US military escorts Maersk ship through Hormuz, easing passage tensions
## Market Snapshot Strait of Hormuz Traffic Normalization market currently suggests a focus on securing safe passage, priced supportive of...
Iran tensions rise as attacks hit UAE, ships; oil prices expected to climb
## Market Snapshot The market for a U.S. declaration of war on Iran by December 31, 2026, shows a current...
US-Iran tensions rise as Strait of Hormuz blockade remains in place
## Market Snapshot The market for “Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz...
Stefan Muehlbauer Warns DOJ Indictments End ‘Safe Zone’ as US Army Sergeant Case Expands Risk
Key Takeaways: The DOJ charged Army Sgt. Van Dyke for using classified data to net over $400,000 on Polymarket. Stefan...
NHL and MLB Sign With Polymarket and Kalshi as Their Unions Ask CFTC to Intervene
Key Takeaways: Player unions for the NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL, and MLS jointly asked the CFTC to ban “negative outcome”...
Diamondback boosts shale output amid Iran conflict, oil prices surge to $120
## Market Snapshot Crude oil price predictions by June are currently priced at 100% YES for hitting $90. Despite Diamondback’s...
White House mulls AI model vetting amid US-China tech tensions
## Market Snapshot Anthropic Mythos Provision to US Government market is currently priced at 100% YES for all sub-market dates,...
Iran tensions heighten oil market uncertainty, crude may hit $90 by June
## Market Snapshot In the “Crude Oil Price Predictions by June” market, the current pricing indicates a 100% YES for...
