Iran enforces maritime red lines, raising Strait of Hormuz tensions
## Market Snapshot The market for “Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?” is currently priced...
Prediction Markets
OPEC+ to raise oil output by 188,000 barrels per day in June amid Iran conflict
## Market Snapshot In the crude oil price predictions market for June, the current pricing reflects a 100% YES on...
Iran warns ships, redirects traffic amid Bab el-Mandeb tensions
## Market Snapshot Bab el-Mandeb Strait Closure market is currently priced at 10.5% YES, down from 11% a day ago....
IDF deploys Iron Drone Raider in Lebanon amid Hezbollah drone threat
## Market Snapshot Israel Withdraws from Lebanon market is currently priced at 9% YES for June 30, 2026, and 3.7%...
Iran’s IRGC warns US of narrowing window amid regional tensions
## Market Snapshot Iran’s potential airspace closure market is currently priced at 12.5% YES for a May 8 resolution, down...
US confirms talks with Iran amid Operation Epic Fury: CNN
## Market Snapshot The market for “Next US-Iran Diplomatic Meeting by June 30, 2026” is currently priced at 33.4% YES,...
Trump rejects Iran’s proposal, US-Iran nuclear deal faces setbacks
## Market Snapshot The US-Iran nuclear deal market is currently priced at 16.5% YES, up from 14% 24 hours ago....
Israel deploys Spectro defense systems to UAE amid Iran tensions
## Market Snapshot The “Iran closes its airspace by May 8?” market is currently priced at 12.5% YES, down from...
US Secretary of War endorses Bitcoin as strategic tool in national security
## Market Snapshot In the “Bitcoin Future Price Predictions” market, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by December 31, 2026,...
Nation-state adoption boosts Bitcoin’s institutional confidence, says Adam Back
## Market Snapshot In the “Bitcoin Future Price Predictions” market, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by December 31, 2026,...
Prediction Markets Cross $150B as Kalshi Expands Lead Over Polymarket
TLDR: Table of Contents Kalshi hit $14.81B April volume, setting a new record despite no major seasonal sports peak Polymarket...
Spirit Airlines shuts down after failed bailout, liquidation confirmed
## Market Snapshot The prediction market for “Spirit Airlines shutdown/liquidation by May 31” is currently priced at 100% YES, confirming...
WTI unlikely to hit $150 in May 2026 amid US exports, Hormuz easing
## Market Snapshot WTI Crude Oil Prices in May 2026: The market currently reflects a scenario where WTI is unlikely...
Federal Reserve shifts focus to potential rate hikes amid inflation concerns
## Market Snapshot In the context of the Federal Reserve’s shift towards discussing rate hikes, the market for a rate...
Attack on bulk carrier near Iran heightens regional tensions
## Market Snapshot In the market for “Iran closes its airspace by May 8?”, the current YES pricing is 12.5%,...
