Justice Department drops investigation into Fed Chair Powell, easing Warsh’s path
## Market Snapshot In the “Jerome Powell Out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026” market, YES is priced at...
Prediction Markets
Trump administration approves $8.6B arms sales amid Iran tensions
## Market Snapshot The market for a “US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31” is currently priced at 15.5% YES, up...
US warns of sanctions for ships paying Iran tolls in Strait of Hormuz
## Market Snapshot The market concerning whether Trump will agree to Iranian demands is now less optimistic, with the current...
Trump considers reducing US troops in Germany, raising NATO concerns
## Market Snapshot In the “US Withdrawal from NATO Timeline” market, the June 30 sub-market is currently priced at 1.7%...
Tehran healthcare collapse amid US-Israel strikes sparks airspace closure fears
## Market Snapshot The “Iran closes its airspace by May 8” market is currently priced at 13.5% YES, down from...
US maintains legal blockade of Strait of Hormuz, reducing war declaration likelihood
## Market Snapshot The market for Trump announcing the lifting of the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by...
Iran proposes peace plan to end war, stabilize region within 30 days
## Market Snapshot In the “Fall of the Iranian Regime” market, the current price is 3.0% YES, unchanged from the...
Iran proposes three-stage plan to end hostilities with US
## Market Snapshot The market for “Next US x Iran Diplomatic Meeting” is currently relevant, with the proposal increasing the...
Israel buys fighter jets as US-Iran tensions rise
## Market Snapshot Next US x Iran Diplomatic Meeting market currently shows little indication of a meeting soon, with no...
OPEC+ raises oil output quotas amid Strait of Hormuz closure
## Market Snapshot In the “Crude Oil Price Predictions by June” market, current pricing reflects a 100% YES outcome for...
Pentagon estimates Iran war cost at $25B, lawmakers contest figures
## Market Snapshot Market: “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?” is currently active with no specified YES pricing. The...
Spirit Airlines ceases operations after failed $500M bailout talks
## Market Snapshot Spirit Airlines shutdown market is currently priced at 100% YES, with no observed volume over the last...
Iran warns of control over Strait of Hormuz amid US tensions
## Market Snapshot The market for “Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?” is currently priced...
Drone strike near Zaporizhzhia plant heightens Russia-Ukraine tensions
## Market Snapshot Market: Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026 Current YES Pricing: 6.0% Trend: Pricing stable over the last...
Michael Saylor plans major Bitcoin purchase amid market optimism
## Market Snapshot Bitcoin Price Predictions for May 2026 market currently shows a neutral stance with no specific pricing for...
