Turkey inflation data impacts US Fed rate cut expectations for June 2026
## Market Snapshot The “Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting” market is currently priced at 4.5% YES, up from...
Prediction Markets
Meta faces New Mexico lawsuit over child safety on Facebook, Instagram
## Market Snapshot Market: Meta Platforms Stock Price Predictions Current Pricing: 100% YES for a $740 high during the week...
US launches “Project Freedom” naval mission amid Hormuz tensions
## Market Snapshot Strait of Hormuz Traffic Normalization: Priced at ? YES with 57 days left, suggesting uncertainty. US Invasion...
Chinese hackers target Cuban embassy amid US-China tensions
## Market Snapshot In the market for “Will Donald Trump visit China on May 5, 2026?”, the current pricing is...
Middle East tensions may trigger oil market shock, says Bank of France head
## Market Snapshot Bitcoin Price Above on May 7 market is priced at 99.9% YES, indicating little change from previous...
Middle East tensions drive oil above $100, impacting global inflation outlook
## Market Snapshot In the ECB interest rate market for April 2026, the probability for a 50+ bps decrease remains...
NATO chief signals improved US-Europe ties, reducing withdrawal likelihood
## Market Snapshot The “US Withdrawal from NATO Timeline” market currently prices at 1.7% YES for a June 30 resolution,...
Iran maintains operational constraints on Strait of Hormuz amid tensions
## Market Snapshot The market for WTI Crude Oil prices in May 2026 shows uncertainty, with odds unreported for the...
Russian soldier desertions highlight morale issues amid Ukraine conflict
## Market Snapshot In the market for whether Russia will capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026, the current pricing is...
Bitcoin tops $80,000 as Clarity Act nears Senate vote, new Fed chair expected
## Market Snapshot Bitcoin markets are pricing a 99.9% probability that its price will remain above $66,000 on May 7,...
Coinbase Says Prediction Markets Are Maturing, CFTC Needs No New Mandate
Key Takeaways: Coinbase urged the CFTC to regulate prediction markets under existing derivatives law. Federal oversight could prevent fragmented state...
KelpDAO exploit highlights DeFi vulnerability amid $1.2B crypto hack concerns for 2026
## Market Snapshot The market for “Over $1.2B crypto hack value in 2026?” is currently unresolved, with key factors suggesting...
Iran proposes diplomatic plan, reducing military action likelihood
## Market Snapshot Iran Leadership Status by End of 2026 market is currently observing a decrease in YES pricing. The...
UKMTO advises mariners to use Oman waters amid Hormuz tensions
## Market Snapshot Iran Shipping Agreement is currently priced at 11% YES, down from 16% in the last 24 hours....
UKMTO warns of increased naval activity in Strait of Hormuz amid US-Iran tensions
## Market Snapshot In the “Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Announcement” market, the probability of a YES outcome is currently at 35.5%,...
