Drone threats in Baltic states, Finland raise NATO-Russia clash concerns
## Market Snapshot The Russia-Ukraine ceasefire market is priced at 5.9% YES, a slight decrease from 6% the previous day....
Prediction Markets
Iran issues one-month ultimatum to end US-Israeli conflict and blockade
## Market Snapshot The market “WTI Crude Oil Prices in May 2026” currently reflects uncertainty around the potential for oil...
Alphabet gains $420B in market cap, challenges Nvidia for top spot
## Market Snapshot In the market for “Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on...
Israel intercepts projectiles from Lebanon amid ceasefire violations
## Market Snapshot In the “Israel withdraws from Lebanon” market, the June 30, 2026, sub-market is priced at 9.5% YES,...
Trump considers Iran peace proposal as Hormuz traffic halts
## Market Snapshot The market for “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?” currently shows uncertainty with no active odds....
Spirit Airlines ceases operations amid soaring fuel costs
## Market Snapshot The Spirit Airlines shutdown market is currently priced at 100% YES, with the question resolved due to...
Q1 2026 US GDP growth confirmed, contradicting market predictions
## Market Snapshot The market for US GDP growth in Q1 2026 being less than 1.0% is currently priced at...
Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon escalate tensions with Iran
## Market Snapshot The market for “Iran closes its airspace by May 8?” is currently priced at 14.5% YES, down...
US Defense partners with tech giants for AI-first military initiative
## Market Snapshot The “Anthropic Mythos Provision to US Government” market currently shows 100% YES across all active sub-markets, with...
Kuwait halts oil exports amid Hormuz blockade, first since Gulf War
## Market Snapshot The “Iranian Demands Trump Will Agree To” market suggests decreased likelihood for a YES outcome, with the...
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 2026 remains unlikely amid stalled diplomacy
## Market Snapshot In the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire markets, a ceasefire by April 30, 2026, is considered unlikely, with activity reflecting...
US to cut troop presence in Germany, signaling potential de-escalation with Iran
## Market Snapshot The market for “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?” is currently assessing a decreased likelihood, with...
Israel-Iran energy conflict escalates, potential Iran airspace closure looms
## Market Snapshot Iran Airspace Closure market shows a current price of 16.5% YES for May 8, down from 24%...
UAE resumes full air traffic as Iran airspace closure odds fall
## Market Snapshot The “Iran closes its airspace by May 8” market is currently priced at 16.5% YES, down from...
Saudi mediation in Lebanon stalls amid internal divisions, impacting Israel withdrawal
## Market Snapshot The “Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026” market is currently priced at 2% YES, down...
