US ships 6,500 tons of munitions to Israel amid rising Iran tensions
## Market Snapshot Iran Airspace Closure market currently shows 14.5% YES for a full closure by May 8, down from...
Prediction Markets
Iran-US hostilities expected to resume, impacting Hormuz blockade market
## Market Snapshot The “Next US x Iran Diplomatic Meeting” market currently has an uncertain YES pricing for dates around...
Iran submits 14-point proposal to US, aims to reopen Strait of Hormuz
## Market Snapshot The market for a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026, is currently priced at 32% YES,...
Beijing defies US sanctions, escalating tensions ahead of Trump-Xi summit
## Market Snapshot Trump’s Visit to China market shows 0.4% YES for May 3, 2026, as participants weigh geopolitical tensions....
Russia intercepts 270 Ukrainian drones amid ongoing conflict
## Market Snapshot In the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions market, the likelihood of a ceasefire by May 31, 2026, is currently...
Hormuz deadlock persists as Trump faces War Powers deadline
## Market Snapshot The market for “Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz...
Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, oil prices surge amid US-Iran conflict
## Market Snapshot In the “Fed Rate Cuts Predictions for 2026” market, current pricing shows uncertainty with no clear YES...
Trump dismisses Iran proposal, signals continued diplomatic impasse
## Market Snapshot The market assessing whether the US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31 is currently priced at...
Trump reviews Iran proposal amid potential diplomatic shift
## Market Snapshot The “next US x Iran diplomatic meeting” market is currently inactive with no recent volume, awaiting developments....
Spirit Airlines ceases operations amid financial struggles and rising fuel costs
## Market Snapshot The Spirit Airlines shutdown market is currently priced at 100% YES for a shutdown or liquidation by...
US considers further military action against Iran amid missile threat
## Market Snapshot The “Iran Leadership Status by End of 2026” market is currently active with sub-markets showing uncertainty in...
Iran accuses US of piracy over seized oil tankers amid Hormuz tensions
## Market Snapshot Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Announcement market shows 32.5% YES, down from 40% in the last 24 hours. US-Iran...
Trump warns of potential US strikes on Iran if they “misbehave”
## Market Snapshot The “US Invasion of Iran” market currently indicates increased likelihood of military action, with a shift in...
Iran maintains Hormuz blockade, impacting global oil shipments
## Market Snapshot The “Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization” market is currently priced at a level suggesting diminished expectations for...
Supertanker crosses Strait of Hormuz, hinting at traffic normalization
## Market Snapshot The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization market is seeing increased activity, with implications of a potential move...
