US confirms talks with Iran amid Operation Epic Fury: CNN
## Market Snapshot The market for “Next US-Iran Diplomatic Meeting by June 30, 2026” is currently priced at 33.4% YES,...
Prediction Markets
Trump rejects Iran’s proposal, US-Iran nuclear deal faces setbacks
## Market Snapshot The US-Iran nuclear deal market is currently priced at 16.5% YES, up from 14% 24 hours ago....
Israel deploys Spectro defense systems to UAE amid Iran tensions
## Market Snapshot The “Iran closes its airspace by May 8?” market is currently priced at 12.5% YES, down from...
US Secretary of War endorses Bitcoin as strategic tool in national security
## Market Snapshot In the “Bitcoin Future Price Predictions” market, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by December 31, 2026,...
Nation-state adoption boosts Bitcoin’s institutional confidence, says Adam Back
## Market Snapshot In the “Bitcoin Future Price Predictions” market, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by December 31, 2026,...
Prediction Markets Cross $150B as Kalshi Expands Lead Over Polymarket
TLDR: Table of Contents Kalshi hit $14.81B April volume, setting a new record despite no major seasonal sports peak Polymarket...
Spirit Airlines shuts down after failed bailout, liquidation confirmed
## Market Snapshot The prediction market for “Spirit Airlines shutdown/liquidation by May 31” is currently priced at 100% YES, confirming...
WTI unlikely to hit $150 in May 2026 amid US exports, Hormuz easing
## Market Snapshot WTI Crude Oil Prices in May 2026: The market currently reflects a scenario where WTI is unlikely...
Federal Reserve shifts focus to potential rate hikes amid inflation concerns
## Market Snapshot In the context of the Federal Reserve’s shift towards discussing rate hikes, the market for a rate...
Attack on bulk carrier near Iran heightens regional tensions
## Market Snapshot In the market for “Iran closes its airspace by May 8?”, the current YES pricing is 12.5%,...
Justice Department drops investigation into Fed Chair Powell, easing Warsh’s path
## Market Snapshot In the “Jerome Powell Out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026” market, YES is priced at...
Trump administration approves $8.6B arms sales amid Iran tensions
## Market Snapshot The market for a “US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31” is currently priced at 15.5% YES, up...
US warns of sanctions for ships paying Iran tolls in Strait of Hormuz
## Market Snapshot The market concerning whether Trump will agree to Iranian demands is now less optimistic, with the current...
Trump considers reducing US troops in Germany, raising NATO concerns
## Market Snapshot In the “US Withdrawal from NATO Timeline” market, the June 30 sub-market is currently priced at 1.7%...
Tehran healthcare collapse amid US-Israel strikes sparks airspace closure fears
## Market Snapshot The “Iran closes its airspace by May 8” market is currently priced at 13.5% YES, down from...
