Iran warns of new battlefield moves, impacting oil sanction relief talks
Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned President Trump that Iran is set to reveal “new cards on the battlefield.”...
Prediction Markets
Anthropic’s AI raises fears of $100M+ crypto hack by year-end
Anthropic’s release of Claude Mythos Preview has pushed traders to price the likelihood of another $100M+ crypto hack by December...
Trump claims Iran violated ceasefire multiple times
Trump states Iran has breached the ceasefire multiple times. Diplomatic meetings by April 30 are at 16.1% YES. Odds for...
$293M DeFi exploit hits Kelp/AAVE, raises systemic risk concerns
A $293M DeFi exploit hit Kelp/Aave, raising questions about systemic risk in agentic payment protocols. USD.AI’s FDV above $300M one...
Iran plans delegation to Pakistan amid military threats
Iran is reportedly preparing to send a delegation to Pakistan, possibly opening a path to diplomatic talks, while state media...
IMO drafts evacuation plan for 800 ships in Persian Gulf amid tensions
The International Maritime Organization has drafted an evacuation plan for 800 ships stranded in the Persian Gulf. As naval tensions...
US-Iran nuclear talks stalled, uranium enrichment end by April 30 uncertain
US-Iran nuclear talks are stalled, with Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 priced at 33.6% YES, up...
Trump unlikely to extend Iran ceasefire as deadline looms
Trump’s statement on the ceasefire extension has pushed the odds of a US-Iran ceasefire ending by April 21 down to...
Iran prepares for potential conflict as US ceasefire expiration looms
Iran is preparing for potential conflict as the ceasefire with the US approaches its expiration. The market for a ceasefire...
Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, tanker traffic collapses 90%
Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed tanker traffic, with fewer than 10 ships expected to transit the...
Strategy, Bitmine buy $2.7B in Bitcoin, Ethereum with equity issuance
Strategy Inc. and Bitmine Immersion Technologies collectively bought $2.77B in Bitcoin and Ethereum, funded through equity issuance. Ethereum’s April price...
Iranian diplomats absent from US-Iran talks in Pakistan, peace deal doubts grow
Iranian state media reports no delegation has left for US-Iran talks in Pakistan. The market for Trump announcing the ceasefire’s...
Iran condemns Israeli actions in Somalia amid peace deal skepticism
Iran condemned Israeli actions in Somalia, and the Polymarket contract for a permanent Israel-Iran peace deal by April 30, 2026,...
US Navy seizes Iranian ship, escalating Gulf tensions
The US Navy seized an Iranian ship, the M/V Touska, ratcheting up tensions in the Gulf. The market for a...
Venezuela’s Machado proposes selling oil for Bitcoin to build national reserve
María Corina Machado, Venezuela’s potential next leader, has proposed selling oil for Bitcoin to establish a national reserve. Bitcoin price...
