Bank of Japan holds rates steady despite inflation from Middle East conflict
The Bank of Japan rates decision market sits at 0.1% YES, with traders overwhelmingly pricing in no rate cut despite...
Prediction Markets
China’s Fujian carrier to reach full readiness this year, invasion odds low
Chinese state media reports that the Fujian aircraft carrier will likely achieve full operational readiness this year. The odds of...
Iran absent from Pakistan peace talks, dims April 22 US-Iran deal prospects
Iran’s absence from the latest peace talks in Pakistan has pushed the US-Iran permanent peace deal market for April 22...
Vice President Vance returns to Pakistan for Iran peace talks ahead of deadline
Vice President Vance is heading back to Pakistan for another round of peace negotiations with Iran, with the US-Iran permanent...
US Navy seizes Iranian ship in Arabian Sea amid Hormuz blockade tensions
The U.S. Navy boarded and seized the Iranian-flagged M/V Touska in the Arabian Sea. The Strait of Hormuz traffic returning...
Four senior officials resign from Trump administration amid controversy
Four senior officials, including three Cabinet members, have resigned from Trump’s administration amid controversy. The market for Trump being out...
Labor Secretary Chavez-DeRemer resigns, third Cabinet exit in Trump’s second term
Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer has resigned to take a private-sector role, making her the third Cabinet departure in Trump’s second...
US crypto adoption rebounds in March, Bitcoin remains dominant
Deutsche Bank’s March report shows U.S. crypto adoption rebounding to 12%, with Bitcoin still the dominant asset. The Bitcoin $80,000...
Russia detains 40 Israelis in Moscow over Iran war involvement
Russian authorities detained 40 Israelis in Moscow over alleged involvement in the Iran war. The market for a permanent Israel-Iran...
Kuwait declares force majeure on oil shipments amid Hormuz blockade
Kuwait has declared force majeure on its oil shipments due to the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. The probability...
Iran accuses Trump of turning talks into capitulation amid stalled diplomacy
Iran’s top negotiator accused Trump of trying to turn negotiations into capitulation. The market for “no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting...
Israeli soldier’s destruction of Jesus statue in Lebanon sparks outrage
An Israeli soldier’s destruction of a Jesus statue in Lebanon has sparked outrage, though the market for Trump endorsing the...
Lebanon funerals mark pause in conflict amid US-brokered 10-day ceasefire
Funerals across Lebanon mark a pause in the conflict with Israel during a U.S.-brokered 10-day ceasefire. The market on Israeli...
Zelensky rejects US-backed Donbas concessions, ceasefire odds fall
Zelensky has dismissed U.S.-backed territorial concessions in Donbas, calling it a “strategic defeat.” The Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026...
Israel defense chiefs push to resume conflict, challenging Trump’s ceasefire stance
Israel’s defense chiefs and most government ministers want to resume the conflict with Hezbollah, according to Ynet, putting pressure on...
