China’s lead output drops 11.4% in March, pressures GDP growth forecasts
China’s lead output dropped 11.4% year-on-year to 652,000 metric tons in March, adding pressure to GDP growth forecasts. The probability...
Prediction Markets
China’s lead output drops 11.4% in March, pressures GDP growth forecasts
China’s lead output dropped 11.4% year-on-year to 652,000 metric tons in March, adding pressure to GDP growth forecasts. The probability...
Trump sees ceasefire extension unlikely without deal, market skeptical
Trump declared a ceasefire extension “highly unlikely” without a deal. The probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April...
Trump sees ceasefire extension unlikely without deal, market skeptical
Trump declared a ceasefire extension “highly unlikely” without a deal. The probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April...
Arbitrum freezes $100M in ETH linked to KelpDAO exploit, targets Lazarus Group
The Arbitrum Security Council has frozen 30,766 ETH (around $100 million) linked to the KelpDAO exploit. The market for another...
White House credits Trump, Operation Epic Fury for nearing Iran peace deal
The White House says a good deal with Iran is close, crediting Operation Epic Fury and Trump’s negotiating ability. The...
Ex-CENTCOM commander warns against risky US ground operation in Iran
Ex-CENTCOM commander General David Petraeus has cautioned against a US ground operation in Iran, calling it “exceedingly risky.” The odds...
Ahmad Vahidi named Iran’s IRGC chief, impacting Reza Pahlavi entry markets
Ahmad Vahidi’s appointment as Iran’s IRGC chief signals a hardline consolidation of power. The market on Reza Pahlavi entering Iran...
US seizes MV Touska in Hormuz, linked to Iranian missile shipments
The US seized the MV Touska in the Strait of Hormuz, reportedly linked to chemical shipments for Iranian missiles, and...
Apple names John Ternus as next CEO, succeeding Tim Cook in 2026
Apple has named John Ternus as its next CEO, succeeding Tim Cook. The Polymarket contract asking whether Ternus would be...
Senate Democrats scrutinize Fed chair nominee Warsh’s asset divestment plan
Senate Democrats are challenging Federal Reserve chair nominee Kevin Warsh on his asset divestment plan ahead of his April 21...
Iran prepares for private peace talks with US amid public hostility
Iranian officials are privately preparing to resume peace talks with the US while maintaining a publicly aggressive stance. Ceasefire odds...
Bank of Japan holds rates steady despite inflation from Middle East conflict
The Bank of Japan rates decision market sits at 0.1% YES, with traders overwhelmingly pricing in no rate cut despite...
China’s Fujian carrier to reach full readiness this year, invasion odds low
Chinese state media reports that the Fujian aircraft carrier will likely achieve full operational readiness this year. The odds of...
Iran absent from Pakistan peace talks, dims April 22 US-Iran deal prospects
Iran’s absence from the latest peace talks in Pakistan has pushed the US-Iran permanent peace deal market for April 22...
