Iran attacks ships, UAE energy sites amid US naval operation in Hormuz
## Market Snapshot In the “US Invasion of Iran” market, pricing currently reflects a 33% YES likelihood. The “Trump’s Hormuz...
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Russia warns of missile strike on Kyiv if Victory Day disrupted
## Market Snapshot In the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions market, the probability of a ceasefire by the end of 2026 is...
$200B erased from US markets amid escalating US-Iran tensions
## Market Snapshot In the prediction market for Bitcoin’s price above $66,000 on May 7, the current pricing stands at...
Putin announces temporary ceasefire in Ukraine conflict amid ongoing hostilities
## Market Snapshot In the “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026” market, the current pricing is at 8.5%...
Iran declares unauthorized Hormuz vessels as legitimate targets amid US tensions
## Market Snapshot In the “Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Announcement” market, the likelihood of a blockade lift by May 31 is...
FINRA approves Securitize for tokenized IPOs, boosting US market prospects
## Market Snapshot In the “IPOs Before 2027” market, current pricing suggests a higher likelihood of YES outcomes following FINRA’s...
Iran blocks US warship entry, Brent crude jumps 5% amid rising tensions
## Market Snapshot In the wake of heightened tensions between the US and Iran, the prediction market for WTI Crude...
Chinese hackers target Cuban embassy amid US-China tensions
## Market Snapshot In the market for “Will Donald Trump visit China on May 5, 2026?”, the current pricing is...
Middle East tensions drive oil above $100, impacting global inflation outlook
## Market Snapshot In the ECB interest rate market for April 2026, the probability for a 50+ bps decrease remains...
Russian soldier desertions highlight morale issues amid Ukraine conflict
## Market Snapshot In the market for whether Russia will capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026, the current pricing is...
UKMTO warns of increased naval activity in Strait of Hormuz amid US-Iran tensions
## Market Snapshot In the “Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Announcement” market, the probability of a YES outcome is currently at 35.5%,...
Netanyahu plea deal talks begin amid corruption trial, potential 2026 exit
## Market Snapshot In the “Netanyahu out by end of 2026?” market, the current odds for a YES outcome are...
Iran conflict, inflation complicate Fed rate cuts for 2026
## Market Snapshot In the “Fed Rate Cuts Predictions for 2026” market, the probability of no rate cuts is currently...
Naftali Bennett announces candidacy for Israeli Prime Minister in 2026 election
## Market Snapshot In the “Netanyahu out by end of 2026?” market, YES pricing is at 4.5% for June 30,...
OPEC+ to raise oil output by 188,000 barrels per day in June amid Iran conflict
## Market Snapshot In the crude oil price predictions market for June, the current pricing reflects a 100% YES on...
