IDF blocks civilian return amid Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire violation claims
The IDF is blocking civilian returns to southern Lebanon as Israel and Hezbollah trade accusations of ceasefire violations. The June...
ceasefire
Trump declares US-Iran ceasefire over, market resolves YES
Trump has declared the US-Iran ceasefire over without reaching a deal, and the market for Trump announcing the ceasefire end...
Trump declares US-Iran ceasefire over, market resolves YES
Trump has declared the US-Iran ceasefire over without reaching a deal, and the market for Trump announcing the ceasefire end...
Trump declares US-Iran ceasefire over, market resolves YES
Trump has declared the US-Iran ceasefire over without reaching a deal, and the market for Trump announcing the ceasefire end...
Iran’s IRGC seizes ships in Strait of Hormuz after Trump extends ceasefire
Iran’s IRGC has seized vessels in the Strait of Hormuz following Trump’s ceasefire extension. The market for the UK sending...
Iran ceasefire boosts Bitcoin speculation, $80K contract surges
The Iran ceasefire has doubled Bitcoin’s odds on Polymarket, with the Bitcoin $80,000 in April contract now at 76% YES,...
US Embassy urges Americans to leave Lebanon as ceasefire collapses
The US Embassy in Lebanon has urged Americans to leave the country after a ceasefire broke down. The odds of...
Iran negotiator links ceasefire to lifting maritime blockade
Iran’s top negotiator Qalibaf said a complete ceasefire cannot be reached while maritime blockades and economic hostilities continue. The US-Iran...
Iran military on high alert as US ceasefire deadline approaches
Iran’s military is on high alert, signaling potential escalation as the ceasefire with the US faces expiration. Odds for a...
Trump extends Iran ceasefire indefinitely, shifting focus to diplomacy
Trump announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire with Iran. The ceasefire by April 30 market sits at 14% YES,...
Trump extends Iran ceasefire as Tehran showcases missiles in parade
US President Donald Trump announced an indefinite extension of the Iran ceasefire as Tehran showcased ballistic missiles in a military...
Bitcoin hits $78K after US-Iran ceasefire extension
Bitcoin surged to $78,000 on April 22, 2026, following news of a ceasefire extension between the United States and Iran....
Trump extends US-Iran ceasefire, but formal peace deal remains unlikely
President Trump has extended the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, but odds of a formal cessation of hostilities by April 30 have dropped...
IRGC gunboat attacks container ship off Oman amid ceasefire extension
An IRGC gunboat attacked a container ship off Oman while a ceasefire extension remains in effect. The probability of a...
UN chief sees Iran–US ceasefire extension as diplomatic opportunity
UN Secretary-General Guterres welcomed the extension of the Iran–US ceasefire, calling it a chance for diplomacy. The April 30 ceasefire...
