Iran rejects US ceasefire proposal, odds drop to 1% for April 7 resolution
Iran has rejected a US ceasefire proposal, dropping the odds of a ceasefire by April 7 to 1% YES, down...
Prediction Markets
US-Iran ceasefire odds plummet as tensions rise over Strait of Hormuz
Iran’s enforcement of new rules in the Strait of Hormuz has heightened tensions, with the US dismissing Iran’s ceasefire conditions....
Iran skips US talks, ending ceasefire negotiations and lowering market optimism
Iran’s decision to skip talks with the US in Islamabad has ended plans for ceasefire discussions. The market for a...
Iran’s rejection of US ceasefire talks drops April 7 odds to 1%
Iran’s refusal to engage in US ceasefire talks halts immediate de-escalation efforts. Odds for a ceasefire by April 7 have...
Bitcoin gains traction as safe haven amid Middle East conflict, $100K odds unclear: FT
Bitcoin is gaining attention as a hedge against fiat currency instability amid the Middle East conflict. The odds of Bitcoin...
Iran’s IRGC missile launch failure raises regime fall odds to 14% by June 30
Iran’s IRGC faced another setback with a missile launch failure in western Tehran, highlighting the degradation of its military capabilities....
US odds for ground forces entering Iran by April 30 jump to 86%
The U.S. confirmed a rescue operation after Iran claimed to have downed a U.S. fighter jet. Odds for U.S. forces...
US rescue operation follows claims of downed fighter jet in Iran
The U.S. launched a rescue operation after Iran claimed a U.S. fighter jet went down over Iran. Odds for U.S....
Tokenized real-world asset market hits $27.6B in April 2026 amid crypto downturn
The tokenized real-world asset market reached $27.65 billion in April 2026, rising 4.07% despite a crypto downturn. Bitcoin’s odds of...
Zarif proposes US-Iran peace plan as ceasefire odds drop to 2% for April 7
Mohammad Javad Zarif has proposed a peace plan involving nuclear curbs between Iran and the US. The odds of a...
Iran’s former foreign minister proposes peace plan with US, market skeptical
A former Iranian foreign minister has proposed a peace plan with the US. The market for a US-Iran ceasefire by...
Strong payroll growth and inflation fears reduce June 2025 Fed rate cut odds: FT
The March jobs report revealed strong payroll growth and a drop in unemployment, reducing the odds of a Fed rate...
Trump’s budget projects $464B in tariff revenue for 2027 amid trade tensions
Trump’s budget estimates $464 billion in tariff revenue for 2027, raising expectations of ongoing trade tensions. Odds for the EU...
Odds of US forces entering Iran by April 30 rise to 66% amid escalating tensions
U.S. efforts to locate downed F-15 pilots in Iran and Iran’s response with fighter jets suggest possible escalation. Odds of...
Ceasefire odds between US and Iran plummet amid stalled negotiations
Donald Trump’s negotiation strategy with Iran has stalled. US-Iran ceasefire odds by April 7 have plunged to 1.4% YES, down...
