Iran’s former foreign minister proposes peace plan with US, market skeptical
A former Iranian foreign minister has proposed a peace plan with the US. The market for a US-Iran ceasefire by...
Prediction Markets
Strong payroll growth and inflation fears reduce June 2025 Fed rate cut odds: FT
The March jobs report revealed strong payroll growth and a drop in unemployment, reducing the odds of a Fed rate...
Trump’s budget projects $464B in tariff revenue for 2027 amid trade tensions
Trump’s budget estimates $464 billion in tariff revenue for 2027, raising expectations of ongoing trade tensions. Odds for the EU...
Odds of US forces entering Iran by April 30 rise to 66% amid escalating tensions
U.S. efforts to locate downed F-15 pilots in Iran and Iran’s response with fighter jets suggest possible escalation. Odds of...
Ceasefire odds between US and Iran plummet amid stalled negotiations
Donald Trump’s negotiation strategy with Iran has stalled. US-Iran ceasefire odds by April 7 have plunged to 1.4% YES, down...
Polymarket Brings TradFi Markets to Prediction Trading With Pyth Integration
Pyth Terminal Goes Live as Polymarket Adds Daily Close Markets for U.S. StocksSoFi Technologies Launches First National Bank Enterprise Crypto...
CFTC and DOJ Sue 3 States as Jurisdiction Battle Raises Stakes for Prediction Markets
CFTC-DOJ Lawsuits Target State Control Over Prediction MarketsThe agencies aim to protect exclusive federal jurisdiction and prevent conflicting state rules...
Prediction Market Showdown: CFTC and DOJ Challenge Illinois State Gambling Authority in Federal Court
U.S. Government Sues Illinois Over Prediction Market Rules, Seeks Permanent InjunctionThe complaint, filed in the U.S. District Court for the...
Paradigm Is Building a Prediction Markets Trading Terminal Targeting Professional Traders
TLDR: Table of Contents Paradigm partner Arjun Balaji has been leading the trading terminal project since late 2025 for pro...
Washington State Targets Kalshi in Illegal Online Betting Lawsuit
Is Kalshi Legal in Washington State? AG Says No, Files SuitThe complaint, filed in King County Superior Court, targets Kalshi‘s...
Trump Impeachment Odds Rise to 70% on Polymarket Amid Falling Approval and Iran War Concerns
Trump Job Approval Falls to 2026 Lows To resolve as “Yes,” the outcome must be formally confirmed through the Library...
US Troops in Region Top 50,000 as Polymarket Gives 71% Odds Forces Enter Iran by April 30
What Trump Is Deciding About Iran Ground Troops — And What Has Actually Happened So FarPolymarket bet as of 5...
US Troops in Region Top 50,000 as Polymarket Gives 71% Odds Forces Enter Iran by April 30
What Trump Is Deciding About Iran Ground Troops — And What Has Actually Happened So FarPolymarket bet as of 5...
Kalshi Approved for Margin Trading After Affiliate Kinetic Markets Gets FCM Registration
Kalshi Margin Trading ApprovedThe NFA filing lists Kinetic Markets as both an FCM and swap firm. Bloomberg was the first...
California Governor Bars Policymakers From Insider Betting on Prediction Markets
California Bans Gubernatorial Appointees From Betting on Prediction Markets With Non-Public InformationThe order takes effect immediately. It extends California’s existing...
