Ceasefire odds for US-Iran conflict drop to 1% amid escalating tensions
Civilians and tribesmen are reportedly heading toward conflict zones between US forces and the IRGC in Iran. The odds of...
Prediction Markets
Kalshi and Polymarket Iran Predictions: $200M+ Bet on Conflict Outcomes in 2026
Key Takeaways:Polymarket bet on April 4, 2026. Kalshi bet on April 4, 2026. Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon before 2027...
Iran’s missile cities raise odds of US ground forces entry to 86.5% by April 30
Iran’s underground missile bases, or “Missile Cities,” are bolstering its ballistic missile arsenal despite ongoing US-Israel airstrikes. With 2,500-6,000 missiles...
Market odds surge for US forces entering Iran by April 30 after clashes
Clashes between Iranian forces and U.S. special forces, alongside a pilot evacuation, have increased market odds. US forces entering Iran...
Odds for US forces entering Iran by April 30 rise to 86% amid ongoing clashes
Clashes between Iranian forces and U.S. special forces continue, with the evacuation of a second pilot underway. Odds for US...
Iran eases transit restrictions for Iraq, but US-Iran ceasefire odds drop
Iran has eased restrictions for Iraq, allowing unrestricted transit through the Strait of Hormuz and reopening borders for trade and...
Iran reopens borders for trade and pilgrims, but ceasefire odds remain low: FT
Iran is allowing Iraq to transit the Strait of Hormuz and has reopened borders for trade and pilgrims. The US-Iran...
Odds of US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 drop to 1% amid escalating tensions
Iran’s warning of potential escalation has driven the odds of a ceasefire by April 7 down to 1% YES. This...
Iran warns of regional chaos for US if tensions escalate, ceasefire odds drop
Iran has issued a warning to the U.S., threatening regional chaos if tensions continue. The odds of a ceasefire by...
Ceasefire odds drop to 1% as protests erupt in Tel Aviv amid escalating tensions
Protests in Tel Aviv demand an end to the war with Iran, while missile strikes from Yemen and explosions in...
Ceasefire odds tumble as protests in Tel Aviv escalate tensions: FT
Protests in Tel Aviv against the Iran war and a Houthi missile launch towards Israel have sent US-Iran ceasefire odds...
Iran rejects temporary ceasefire, demands permanent war resolution guarantees
Iran has rejected a temporary ceasefire, demanding guarantees for a permanent end to the war. The odds of a ceasefire...
Iran rejects temporary ceasefire, demands permanent guarantees instead
Iran has rejected a temporary ceasefire proposal, demanding permanent guarantees instead. The odds for a ceasefire by April 7 are...
Michael Saylor sees Bitcoin as digital capital, predicts institutional influence
Michael Saylor claims Bitcoin is recognized as digital capital, with future price movements driven by institutional capital flows. The market...
Saylor’s Bitcoin optimism fails to shift $100K price target odds: traders wait
Michael Saylor’s statement that Bitcoin is digital capital hasn’t shifted price target markets. Odds for Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by June...
