Qatar skips Iran-US ceasefire talks, lowering April 7 odds to 1% YES
Qatar’s decision to skip Iran-U.S. ceasefire talks until Iran stops missile strikes on Gulf countries has hit ceasefire odds. The...
Prediction Markets
Schwab to launch spot Bitcoin and Ether trading in H1 2026, boosting bullish sentiment
Schwab will launch spot Bitcoin and Ether trading in the first half of 2026. This news impacts the market for...
Iran rejects US proposal for 48-hour ceasefire, odds of resolution plummet
Iran has rejected a U.S. proposal for a 48-hour ceasefire amid ongoing conflict. The odds of a ceasefire by April...
Iran’s former foreign minister proposes nuclear deal amid low ceasefire odds
Iran’s former foreign minister proposed limiting the nuclear program in exchange for lifting sanctions and reopening the Strait of Hormuz....
Iran’s ex-foreign minister proposes nuclear limits for sanctions relief and ceasefire
Iran’s former foreign minister has suggested limiting the country’s nuclear program in exchange for lifting sanctions, reopening the Strait of...
Iran rejects US ceasefire proposal, odds drop to 1% for April 7 resolution
Iran has rejected a US ceasefire proposal, dropping the odds of a ceasefire by April 7 to 1% YES, down...
US-Iran ceasefire odds plummet as tensions rise over Strait of Hormuz
Iran’s enforcement of new rules in the Strait of Hormuz has heightened tensions, with the US dismissing Iran’s ceasefire conditions....
Iran skips US talks, ending ceasefire negotiations and lowering market optimism
Iran’s decision to skip talks with the US in Islamabad has ended plans for ceasefire discussions. The market for a...
Iran’s rejection of US ceasefire talks drops April 7 odds to 1%
Iran’s refusal to engage in US ceasefire talks halts immediate de-escalation efforts. Odds for a ceasefire by April 7 have...
Bitcoin gains traction as safe haven amid Middle East conflict, $100K odds unclear: FT
Bitcoin is gaining attention as a hedge against fiat currency instability amid the Middle East conflict. The odds of Bitcoin...
Iran’s IRGC missile launch failure raises regime fall odds to 14% by June 30
Iran’s IRGC faced another setback with a missile launch failure in western Tehran, highlighting the degradation of its military capabilities....
US odds for ground forces entering Iran by April 30 jump to 86%
The U.S. confirmed a rescue operation after Iran claimed to have downed a U.S. fighter jet. Odds for U.S. forces...
US rescue operation follows claims of downed fighter jet in Iran
The U.S. launched a rescue operation after Iran claimed a U.S. fighter jet went down over Iran. Odds for U.S....
Tokenized real-world asset market hits $27.6B in April 2026 amid crypto downturn
The tokenized real-world asset market reached $27.65 billion in April 2026, rising 4.07% despite a crypto downturn. Bitcoin’s odds of...
Zarif proposes US-Iran peace plan as ceasefire odds drop to 2% for April 7
Mohammad Javad Zarif has proposed a peace plan involving nuclear curbs between Iran and the US. The odds of a...
