US special forces rescue F-15 crew in Iran as tensions escalate
U.S. special forces rescued F-15 crew members in Iran amid rising tensions. Ceasefire by April 7 sits at 1.1% YES,...
Prediction Markets
US forces entering Iran by April 30 surge to 86% amid rising tensions
The U.S. rescue operation inside Iran complicates ceasefire prospects. Ceasefire by April 7 is at 1% YES, down from 2%...
Trump hints at Iran accepting ceasefire terms without nuclear conditions
Trump suggests Iran could accept ceasefire terms excluding nuclear conditions. Odds for a ceasefire by April 7 are at 1.1%...
Trump’s comments on Iran drop ceasefire odds to 1% by April 7
Trump’s comments on Iran mix hope for a deal with a threat of attack if negotiations collapse. The odds of...
Odds for US forces entering Iran by April 30 surge to 86.5% amid drone removal
U.S. forces are removing Iranian attack drones threatening Americans and civilians. Odds for U.S. forces entering Iran by April 30...
US market odds for ground troops entering Iran by April 30 surge to 86%
U.S. forces are actively removing Iranian attack drones threatening Americans and civilians. The odds of U.S. ground troops entering Iran...
Trump warns of military escalation if Iran deal not reached by Tuesday
President Trump has warned of military escalation if Iran fails to reach a deal by Tuesday. The odds of the...
Trump threatens Iran with infrastructure targets if no deal by Tuesday: FT
President Trump has issued an ultimatum to Iran, threatening to target infrastructure if no deal is reached by Tuesday. The...
Trump claims Iran deal possible by tomorrow, but market remains skeptical
Trump suggests a deal with Iran could be finalized by tomorrow. The ceasefire by April 7 market remains skeptical at...
Trump’s threat drops US-Iran ceasefire odds to 1% for April 7
Trump’s threat of escalation if no Iran deal by Monday drops US-Iran ceasefire odds to 1% YES for April 7,...
Trump claims US armed Iranian protesters, predicts deal with Iran by tomorrow
Trump claims the US has armed Iranian protesters and Kurds, predicting a deal with Iran by tomorrow. The odds for...
Trump’s ultimatum to Iran lowers April ceasefire odds to 1%
Trump’s ultimatum to Iran: open the Strait of Hormuz or face repercussions. The odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April...
Saylor hints at buying more Bitcoin as market awaits signals before June 30
Michael Saylor, Executive Chairman of MicroStrategy, suggested buying more Bitcoin. The market for Bitcoin to surpass $100,000 by June 30...
Iran downs US F-15, maintains military resilience as regime stability odds drop to 13.5%
Iran shot down a U.S. F-15 over Tehran, refusing a ceasefire and signaling military resilience. The odds of the Iranian...
Nevada Court Rules Kalshi Event Contracts Align With Gambling Laws
Key Takeaways Judge Jason Woodbury issued a preliminary injunction against Kalshi in Carson City on April 3, 2026. The Nevada...
