Iran vows retaliation against US attacks, reducing ceasefire odds significantly: FT
Iran has announced plans to retaliate against US attacks, rejecting US influence in negotiations. The chance of a US-Iran ceasefire...
Prediction Markets
Ceasefire odds drop for US-Iran talks, April 7 now at 1.1% YES
A tweet from @zerohedge shows the U.S. and Iran remain at odds, dropping the odds of a ceasefire by April...
US forces confirm ground operations in Iran, April 30 market hits 86.5% YES
The U.S. executed a high-risk rescue mission inside Iran, recovering a downed pilot. “US forces enter Iran by April 30”...
Powell’s inflation warning dampens rate cut expectations for June FOMC meeting: FT
Powell’s warning about inflation risks has reduced expectations for a rate cut at the June 18 FOMC meeting. His cautious...
Powell’s inflation concerns lower odds for June 2025 Fed rate cut
Jerome Powell’s comments on inflation risks have reduced the odds of a rate cut at the June 2025 FOMC meeting....
Trump’s remarks raise odds of US forces entering Iran by April 30 to 86.5%
President Trump stated that the US doesn’t need ground troops in Iran but hasn’t ruled out their deployment. The odds...
US and Israel ready to strike Iran as ceasefire odds plummet to 1%
The U.S. and Israel are prepared to strike Iranian targets if negotiations collapse. The odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by...
US and Israel prepare to strike Iran as ceasefire odds plummet to 1.1%
The U.S. and Israel are ready to strike Iranian targets if negotiations fail. The odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by...
Lawmaker Demands Polymarket Remove 219 War Bets After Airman Market Controversy
Key Takeaways:Screenshot of Rep. Seth Moulton’s X post.Screenshot of Polymarket’s reply on X. The company did not identify which specific...
UAE considers joining US-led coalition to secure Strait of Hormuz after rescue operation: FT
The UAE is considering joining a US-led coalition to secure the Strait of Hormuz after a US military rescue operation...
UAE joins US-led coalition to secure Strait of Hormuz amid military tensions
The UAE plans to join a U.S.-led coalition to secure the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the U.S. successfully conducted a...
Trump hints at de-escalation in Iran conflict as troop market odds surge to 86%
Trump’s recent statement suggests a shift toward de-escalation in the Iran conflict. US troops entering Iran by April 30 now...
Trump’s comments cool speculation on US ground invasion in Iran, market shifts to 86% YES
Trump’s recent comments have cooled speculation about a ground invasion in Iran. The market for US forces entering Iran by...
Viral song boosts odds of Iranian regime collapse to 13.5% by June 30
A satirical song by a London-based Iranian artist celebrating the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader has gone viral. Odds for...
Pope Leo’s appeal raises US-Iran ceasefire odds, April 30 now at 18% YES
Pope Leo’s appeal for dialogue slightly raises US-Iran ceasefire odds. The chance of a ceasefire by April 7 is now...
