Trump’s statement boosts odds of Iranian regime falling by June 30 to 14%
Trump announced that Iranian military leaders were killed during Israeli strikes in Tehran. The odds of the Iranian regime falling...
Prediction Markets
Trump’s Tehran strike raises odds of Iranian regime fall to 14% by June 30
Trump announced that top Iranian military leaders were killed in a Tehran strike, raising the odds of Iran’s regime falling...
US combat search and rescue team enters Iran, boosting military presence odds to 86%
A U.S. combat search and rescue team has entered Iran to recover a missing F-15E crew member, boosting the odds...
US combat search and rescue team confirmed inside Iran for F-15E recovery
A U.S. combat search and rescue team is confirmed inside Iran to recover a missing F-15E crew member. US forces...
Ceasefire odds drop to 1% as US forces clash with IRGC in Iran
Civilians and tribesmen are reportedly moving toward clashes between US forces and the IRGC in Iran. The odds of a...
Ceasefire odds for US-Iran conflict drop to 1% amid escalating tensions
Civilians and tribesmen are reportedly heading toward conflict zones between US forces and the IRGC in Iran. The odds of...
Kalshi and Polymarket Iran Predictions: $200M+ Bet on Conflict Outcomes in 2026
Key Takeaways:Polymarket bet on April 4, 2026. Kalshi bet on April 4, 2026. Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon before 2027...
Iran’s missile cities raise odds of US ground forces entry to 86.5% by April 30
Iran’s underground missile bases, or “Missile Cities,” are bolstering its ballistic missile arsenal despite ongoing US-Israel airstrikes. With 2,500-6,000 missiles...
Market odds surge for US forces entering Iran by April 30 after clashes
Clashes between Iranian forces and U.S. special forces, alongside a pilot evacuation, have increased market odds. US forces entering Iran...
Odds for US forces entering Iran by April 30 rise to 86% amid ongoing clashes
Clashes between Iranian forces and U.S. special forces continue, with the evacuation of a second pilot underway. Odds for US...
Iran eases transit restrictions for Iraq, but US-Iran ceasefire odds drop
Iran has eased restrictions for Iraq, allowing unrestricted transit through the Strait of Hormuz and reopening borders for trade and...
Iran reopens borders for trade and pilgrims, but ceasefire odds remain low: FT
Iran is allowing Iraq to transit the Strait of Hormuz and has reopened borders for trade and pilgrims. The US-Iran...
Odds of US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 drop to 1% amid escalating tensions
Iran’s warning of potential escalation has driven the odds of a ceasefire by April 7 down to 1% YES. This...
Iran warns of regional chaos for US if tensions escalate, ceasefire odds drop
Iran has issued a warning to the U.S., threatening regional chaos if tensions continue. The odds of a ceasefire by...
Ceasefire odds drop to 1% as protests erupt in Tel Aviv amid escalating tensions
Protests in Tel Aviv demand an end to the war with Iran, while missile strikes from Yemen and explosions in...
