UAE joins US-led coalition to secure Strait of Hormuz amid military tensions
The UAE plans to join a U.S.-led coalition to secure the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the U.S. successfully conducted a...
Prediction Markets
Trump hints at de-escalation in Iran conflict as troop market odds surge to 86%
Trump’s recent statement suggests a shift toward de-escalation in the Iran conflict. US troops entering Iran by April 30 now...
Trump’s comments cool speculation on US ground invasion in Iran, market shifts to 86% YES
Trump’s recent comments have cooled speculation about a ground invasion in Iran. The market for US forces entering Iran by...
Viral song boosts odds of Iranian regime collapse to 13.5% by June 30
A satirical song by a London-based Iranian artist celebrating the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader has gone viral. Odds for...
Pope Leo’s appeal raises US-Iran ceasefire odds, April 30 now at 18% YES
Pope Leo’s appeal for dialogue slightly raises US-Iran ceasefire odds. The chance of a ceasefire by April 7 is now...
US special forces rescue F-15 crew in Iran as tensions escalate
U.S. special forces rescued F-15 crew members in Iran amid rising tensions. Ceasefire by April 7 sits at 1.1% YES,...
US forces entering Iran by April 30 surge to 86% amid rising tensions
The U.S. rescue operation inside Iran complicates ceasefire prospects. Ceasefire by April 7 is at 1% YES, down from 2%...
Trump hints at Iran accepting ceasefire terms without nuclear conditions
Trump suggests Iran could accept ceasefire terms excluding nuclear conditions. Odds for a ceasefire by April 7 are at 1.1%...
Trump’s comments on Iran drop ceasefire odds to 1% by April 7
Trump’s comments on Iran mix hope for a deal with a threat of attack if negotiations collapse. The odds of...
Odds for US forces entering Iran by April 30 surge to 86.5% amid drone removal
U.S. forces are removing Iranian attack drones threatening Americans and civilians. Odds for U.S. forces entering Iran by April 30...
US market odds for ground troops entering Iran by April 30 surge to 86%
U.S. forces are actively removing Iranian attack drones threatening Americans and civilians. The odds of U.S. ground troops entering Iran...
Trump warns of military escalation if Iran deal not reached by Tuesday
President Trump has warned of military escalation if Iran fails to reach a deal by Tuesday. The odds of the...
Trump threatens Iran with infrastructure targets if no deal by Tuesday: FT
President Trump has issued an ultimatum to Iran, threatening to target infrastructure if no deal is reached by Tuesday. The...
Trump claims Iran deal possible by tomorrow, but market remains skeptical
Trump suggests a deal with Iran could be finalized by tomorrow. The ceasefire by April 7 market remains skeptical at...
Trump’s threat drops US-Iran ceasefire odds to 1% for April 7
Trump’s threat of escalation if no Iran deal by Monday drops US-Iran ceasefire odds to 1% YES for April 7,...
