Trump claims US armed Iranian protesters, predicts deal with Iran by tomorrow
Trump claims the US has armed Iranian protesters and Kurds, predicting a deal with Iran by tomorrow. The odds for...
Prediction Markets
Trump’s ultimatum to Iran lowers April ceasefire odds to 1%
Trump’s ultimatum to Iran: open the Strait of Hormuz or face repercussions. The odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April...
Saylor hints at buying more Bitcoin as market awaits signals before June 30
Michael Saylor, Executive Chairman of MicroStrategy, suggested buying more Bitcoin. The market for Bitcoin to surpass $100,000 by June 30...
Iran downs US F-15, maintains military resilience as regime stability odds drop to 13.5%
Iran shot down a U.S. F-15 over Tehran, refusing a ceasefire and signaling military resilience. The odds of the Iranian...
Nevada Court Rules Kalshi Event Contracts Align With Gambling Laws
Key Takeaways Judge Jason Woodbury issued a preliminary injunction against Kalshi in Carson City on April 3, 2026. The Nevada...
US ground troop odds in Iran rise to 86% after successful rescue mission
A U.S. rescue mission inside Iran successfully saved a trapped airman despite aircraft damage. This has driven the odds of...
US forces’ rescue mission in Iran boosts market confidence for April 30 entry
The U.S. executed a daring rescue inside Iran, saving a trapped airman despite damaged aircraft. “US forces enter Iran by...
Lebanese president urges negotiations with Israel amid IDF strikes on Hezbollah
The Lebanese president has urged negotiations with Israel as the IDF targets Hezbollah in Beirut. Odds for a US-Iran ceasefire...
Lebanese president calls for talks with Israel amid ongoing Hezbollah strikes
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has called for negotiations with Israel to end the conflict, while the IDF continues its strikes...
Oman and Iran discuss maritime transit as ceasefire odds drop to 1%
Oman and Iran are in talks about maritime transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The odds of a ceasefire by...
Oman and Iran meet to discuss transit through Strait of Hormuz amid ceasefire doubts: FT
Oman and Iran met to ensure smooth transit through the Strait of Hormuz, signaling diplomatic engagement. The US-Iran ceasefire by...
Odds of US forces entering Iran by April 30 jump to 86% after airman rescue
The successful rescue of a second airman from Iran after the downing of a US F-15 fighter jet has pushed...
Ceasefire odds plummet as Iran’s missile launches escalate tensions in Strait of Hormuz
Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz and recent missile launches have dashed hopes for a ceasefire by April 7,...
Traders raise odds for US ground troops in Iran to 86% by April 30
Alan Eyre claims seizing Iran’s enriched uranium would require risky ground forces. US forces entering Iran by April 30 is...
Traders raise odds of US forces entering Iran by April 30 to 86.5%
Alan Eyre’s comments about possibly needing US ground forces to seize Iran’s enriched uranium have traders reevaluating the odds. US...
