US ground troop odds in Iran rise to 86% after successful rescue mission
A U.S. rescue mission inside Iran successfully saved a trapped airman despite aircraft damage. This has driven the odds of...
Prediction Markets
US forces’ rescue mission in Iran boosts market confidence for April 30 entry
The U.S. executed a daring rescue inside Iran, saving a trapped airman despite damaged aircraft. “US forces enter Iran by...
Lebanese president urges negotiations with Israel amid IDF strikes on Hezbollah
The Lebanese president has urged negotiations with Israel as the IDF targets Hezbollah in Beirut. Odds for a US-Iran ceasefire...
Lebanese president calls for talks with Israel amid ongoing Hezbollah strikes
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has called for negotiations with Israel to end the conflict, while the IDF continues its strikes...
Oman and Iran discuss maritime transit as ceasefire odds drop to 1%
Oman and Iran are in talks about maritime transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The odds of a ceasefire by...
Oman and Iran meet to discuss transit through Strait of Hormuz amid ceasefire doubts: FT
Oman and Iran met to ensure smooth transit through the Strait of Hormuz, signaling diplomatic engagement. The US-Iran ceasefire by...
Odds of US forces entering Iran by April 30 jump to 86% after airman rescue
The successful rescue of a second airman from Iran after the downing of a US F-15 fighter jet has pushed...
Ceasefire odds plummet as Iran’s missile launches escalate tensions in Strait of Hormuz
Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz and recent missile launches have dashed hopes for a ceasefire by April 7,...
Traders raise odds for US ground troops in Iran to 86% by April 30
Alan Eyre claims seizing Iran’s enriched uranium would require risky ground forces. US forces entering Iran by April 30 is...
Traders raise odds of US forces entering Iran by April 30 to 86.5%
Alan Eyre’s comments about possibly needing US ground forces to seize Iran’s enriched uranium have traders reevaluating the odds. US...
Ceasefire hopes fade as US and Iran remain at an impasse
U.S. and Iran aren’t negotiating due to irreconcilable differences, quashing hopes for a deal. Ceasefire by April 7 sits at...
Ceasefire odds for US-Iran talks plummet, April 7 now just 1% YES
US-Iran negotiations continue, with Trump extending a pause on strikes to support talks. However, the odds of a ceasefire by...
Iraqi PMF forces enter Iran as US troop involvement odds surge to 86%
Iraqi PMF forces have entered Iran to support the regime amid ongoing protests and potential conflict with the US. The...
Iraqi PMF forces enter Iran, raising odds of US troops entering by April 30 to 86%
Iraqi PMF forces have reportedly entered Iran’s Khuzestan province to support the Iranian regime. This has pushed the odds of...
Odds for US forces entering Iran by April 30 rise to 86.5% after F-15E recovery
U.S. forces have recovered a crew member from a downed F-15E inside Iranian territory, confirming ground operations. Odds for U.S....
