Iran downs two US warplanes, reducing April 7 ceasefire odds to 1%
Iran reportedly downed two US warplanes, sharply reducing the odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 to 1% YES,...
Prediction Markets
US-Iran ceasefire markets show sharp declines amid rising nuclear threat
Iran’s nuclear threat is shaking Middle East stability. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 now sits at 1% YES, down...
GBP/USD drops as strong US employment data fuels Fed rate hold speculation
The GBP/USD exchange rate dropped after strong US employment data fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates...
Odds of US forces entering Iran by April 30 rise to 86% amid escalating tensions
U.S. strategy in Iran appears to be faltering, with diminishing support and damaged aircraft. Iran has reactivated its missile bunkers....
Market sees rising odds of US forces entering Iran by April 30 at 86% YES
Iran has reactivated its underground missile bunkers, and multiple aircraft incidents occurred between US and Iranian forces in the last...
F-15E Strike Eagle shot down over Iran raises odds of US ground troops entering
A U.S. F-15E Strike Eagle was shot down over Iran, prompting immediate search-and-rescue operations. “US forces enter Iran by April...
Iran rejects US ceasefire demands, odds for April 7 drop to 1.1%
Iran has rejected US ceasefire demands, and mediators report that efforts for a ceasefire have failed. Ceasefire by April 7...
Trump signs executive order for 100% tariffs on patented drugs to boost US production
President Trump signed an executive order imposing 100% tariffs on patented drugs to boost US production. The odds of the...
BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF sees $52B in assets, signals bullish trend for Bitcoin
BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF sees daily trading volume at 57-75 million shares. The Bitcoin price target for June 30 remains unclear,...
Trump: US jet downing won’t affect Iran negotiations, ceasefire odds drop
Trump stated that the downing of a US jet won’t disrupt negotiations with Iran. The market for a US-Iran ceasefire...
Qatar skips Iran-US ceasefire talks, lowering April 7 odds to 1% YES
Qatar’s decision to skip Iran-U.S. ceasefire talks until Iran stops missile strikes on Gulf countries has hit ceasefire odds. The...
Schwab to launch spot Bitcoin and Ether trading in H1 2026, boosting bullish sentiment
Schwab will launch spot Bitcoin and Ether trading in the first half of 2026. This news impacts the market for...
Iran rejects US proposal for 48-hour ceasefire, odds of resolution plummet
Iran has rejected a U.S. proposal for a 48-hour ceasefire amid ongoing conflict. The odds of a ceasefire by April...
Iran’s former foreign minister proposes nuclear deal amid low ceasefire odds
Iran’s former foreign minister proposed limiting the nuclear program in exchange for lifting sanctions and reopening the Strait of Hormuz....
Iran’s ex-foreign minister proposes nuclear limits for sanctions relief and ceasefire
Iran’s former foreign minister has suggested limiting the country’s nuclear program in exchange for lifting sanctions, reopening the Strait of...
