Hyperliquid Launches HIP-4 and Targets Polymarket With Zero-Fee Outcome Markets
Key Takeaways:The first HIP-4 outcome market. The fee model is designed to attract volume away from Polymarket and Kalshi. Opening...
Prediction Markets
XRP spot ETFs attract $2.2M inflows as BTC, ETH see outflows amid tensions
## Market Snapshot Bitcoin price target markets show a significant decline in optimism. The $80,000 target is priced at 0.1%...
Senator Tillis stalls CLARITY Act, impacting Bitcoin’s long-term outlook
## Market Snapshot Bitcoin’s future price prediction market currently prices a 4.4% YES probability for Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by December...
OPEC+ nations agree to raise oil output quotas by 188,000 BPD for June
## Market Snapshot Crude Oil Price Predictions by June market is currently priced at 100% YES for crude oil hitting...
US-Iran diplomatic meeting odds drop after $9B arms deal
## Market Snapshot In the “Next US x Iran Diplomatic Meeting” market, the arms deal news has decreased the likelihood...
Hezbollah resurgence complicates Israeli withdrawal, US-Iran ceasefire talks
## Market Snapshot In the “Israel Withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026” market, the YES pricing has decreased to...
Spirit Airlines shuts down amid US-Iran-Israel conflict and rising fuel costs
## Market Snapshot “Will Iran strike Israel by April 30, 2026?” is now resolved at 100% YES. The “fall of...
US C-17 lands in Beijing, signaling preparations for Trump’s China visit in May
## Market Snapshot The market for Trump’s visit to China by May 1 currently shows 0.1% YES, with prices unchanged...
Fighting escalates in Ukraine’s Kostiantynivka, challenging ceasefire hopes
## Market Snapshot Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions for April 30, 2026, currently reflect 0.1% YES pricing, unchanged from 24 hours ago....
Trump calls for war with Iran to stop nuclear threat
## Market Snapshot The market for a US declaration of war on Iran by December 31, 2026, is currently priced...
Trump calls US Navy actions “piracy” amid Hormuz blockade tensions
## Market Snapshot Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Announcement market is currently priced at 39.5% YES, down from 44% in the last...
Iran’s internet blackout enters tenth week amid ongoing conflict
## Market Snapshot The Iranian regime fall market for June 30 is currently priced at 6.5% YES, down from 8%...
US approves $8.6B arms package for Israel, Qatar amid rising tensions
## Market Snapshot US-Iran Ceasefire market currently prices at 0.1% YES, down from 6% a week ago. The WTI Crude...
US pushes Aoun-Netanyahu meeting for Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon
## Market Snapshot The market for “Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026” is currently priced at 9% YES,...
Iran-backed militias attack US-UK base in Iraq 28 times before ceasefire
## Market Snapshot Iran Military Action market is currently priced at 100% YES for an Iranian strike on Israel by...
