Iran asserts defense rights, casting doubt on US-Iran ceasefire stability
Iran’s latest statement asserting its right to defend itself has cast doubt on the fragile US-Iran ceasefire. The odds of...
Prediction Markets
DOJ cuts voting rights staff, shifts focus to voter fraud investigations
The Justice Department’s Voting Rights Section has been cut from around 30 attorneys to just 2-6, a move that could...
Hezbollah drone attack dims hopes for long-term Israel ceasefire
Hezbollah’s drone attack during a ceasefire has dimmed hopes for a long-term truce. The market for an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire by...
New IRA bombing raises fears of Iran, Hezbollah militant ties in Northern Ireland
The recent New IRA bombing in Northern Ireland has raised concerns over a militant network linked to Iran and Hezbollah....
Zelensky praises Ukrainian drone strikes deep in Russia, ceasefire odds unchanged
Zelensky praised Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia’s Orsk and Perm, 1,500 km behind the front lines. The Russia x Ukraine...
US base damage in Gulf highlights UK-Iran strike contract on Polymarket
Damage to U.S. military bases in the Gulf has drawn attention to a Polymarket contract on whether the UK will...
Iran’s ex-fuel suppliers seek energy deals, impacting crude oil market
Iran’s First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber announced that former fuel suppliers are negotiating energy deals with Tehran, a development that...
MegaETH confirms token generation event for April 30, 2026
Cyrus Fazel, CEO of SwissBorg, disclosed his 2026 token strategy and confirmed MegaETH’s TGE for April 30, 2026. The April...
Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon test ceasefire stability
Israeli airstrikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon are raising doubts about the ceasefire’s stability. The odds of Netanyahu’s departure by June...
Jerome Powell likely chairs final FOMC meeting, Kevin Warsh to succeed
Jerome Powell is likely chairing his last FOMC meeting today, with Kevin Warsh set to take over next month. The...
Iran cuts gas consumption after losing 18.5M gallons of fuel in facility damage
Iran lost over 18.5 million gallons of fuel, prompting natural gas consumption cuts after war-related facility damage. The odds for...
Trump rejects Tehran’s plea, calls Iran in ‘state of collapse’
Trump rejected Tehran’s plea to end the naval blockade and called Iran a country in a “state of collapse,” pushing...
US Treasury yields climb as Fed meeting nears amid geopolitical tensions
US Treasury yields are climbing as the Federal Reserve approaches its April 28-29 meeting, with Polymarket pricing a 99.8% chance...
Japan’s PM engages with Iran for safe Strait of Hormuz passage
Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is diplomatically engaging with Iran for safe passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz....
Bitcoin transaction volume surpasses Visa, Mastercard in 2025
Bitcoin’s transaction volume outpaced Visa and Mastercard in 2025. The odds of Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by December 31, 2026, are...
