Iran rejects US talks, ceasefire by April 30 unlikely
Iran has refused further negotiations with the U.S., citing pressure and coercion. The likelihood of a ceasefire by April 30...
Prediction Markets
Bitcoin spot ETF inflows hit $11.8M amid geopolitical stabilization
Bitcoin spot ETF net inflows reached $11.84 million on April 21, marking six consecutive days of inflows. The Polymarket contract...
Trump cites Iran’s cash crunch amid delayed military salaries
Trump claims Iran is experiencing tight cash liquidity conditions. The ceasefire by April 30 market sits at 14.5% YES, down...
Trump claims Iran is financially collapsing, markets remain skeptical
Trump declared Iran is “collapsing financially,” citing massive daily losses. The likelihood of the Iranian regime falling by April 30...
Trump extends US-Iran ceasefire indefinitely, shifts focus to diplomacy
Trump’s indefinite extension of the US-Iran ceasefire has moved prediction markets sharply. The odds for a formal ceasefire by April...
US-Iran compromise deal seen as inevitable despite market skepticism
A former RAF Air Command deputy commander has said a US-Iran compromise deal now seems inevitable, with Iran potentially gaining...
US blocks Iraq dollar shipments to pressure Iran-backed militias: WSJ
The U.S. has blocked Iraq’s dollar shipments to pressure Iran-backed militias, according to the Wall Street Journal. The U.S.-Iran ceasefire...
CIA operatives killed in Mexico amid Iran ceasefire doubts
Two CIA operatives died during a covert operation in Mexican cartel territory. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 30 market sits...
Rumors of coup attempt in Iran highlight factional divides in Tehran
Rumors of a coup attempt in Iran have sent the ceasefire-by-April-30 market to 16% YES, down from 32% yesterday. The...
Goldman Sachs files for Bitcoin Premium Income ETF amid market volatility
Goldman Sachs filed to launch a Bitcoin Premium Income ETF, and the Polymarket contract “Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?”...
Oil prices dip amid potential US-Iran ceasefire extension
Oil prices dipped as a potential extension of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire muddied market outlooks. The ceasefire-by-April-30 market sits at 16.5%...
Kevin Warsh calls for regime change at Fed, eyes rate cuts
Kevin Warsh, nominated to be the next Federal Reserve chair, has called for a “regime change” at the central bank,...
White House claims victory in Operation Epic Fury, market skeptical of April 30 end
The White House claims all objectives of Operation Epic Fury have been met, portraying Iran as defeated. The prediction market...
Strait of Hormuz blockade escalates US-Iran tensions, disrupts energy supply
The Strait of Hormuz blockade and an intensifying US-Iran standoff are pushing ceasefire odds lower. Ceasefire by April 30 is...
Pakistan’s diplomatic push impacts US-Iran ceasefire odds as deadline nears
Pakistan’s diplomatic push to salvage US-Iran talks has driven down ceasefire odds. The market for Trump announcing the end of...
