Iran maps Persian Gulf undersea cables, raising cyber threat concerns
IRGC-linked Tasnim has mapped the Persian Gulf’s undersea internet cables, signaling potential escalation in cyber-physical threats. The ceasefire-by-April-30 market sits...
Prediction Markets
Crypto market hit by $415M liquidation wave amid US-Iran tensions
A liquidation wave hit the crypto market, wiping out over $415M in positions within 24 hours, including $285M in shorts...
Trump extends US-Iran ceasefire, but formal peace deal remains unlikely
President Trump has extended the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, but odds of a formal cessation of hostilities by April 30 have dropped...
US blocks Iraq dollar shipments to pressure Iran-backed militias
The US has blocked Iraq’s dollar shipments from Federal Reserve accounts to pressure Iran-backed militias. The US-Iran ceasefire by April...
Russia’s State Duma passes crypto bill, Bitcoin demand may rise
Russia’s State Duma passed the crypto regulation bill in its first reading. Bitcoin reaching $80,000 in April sits at 66%...
IRGC gunboat attacks container ship off Oman amid ceasefire extension
An IRGC gunboat attacked a container ship off Oman while a ceasefire extension remains in effect. The probability of a...
UN chief sees Iran–US ceasefire extension as diplomatic opportunity
UN Secretary-General Guterres welcomed the extension of the Iran–US ceasefire, calling it a chance for diplomacy. The April 30 ceasefire...
Iran ready to negotiate if US lifts naval blockade, market odds drop
Iran’s UN ambassador declared readiness to negotiate once the US lifts its naval blockade. The ceasefire-by-April-30 market sits at 15.5%...
Iran open to talks if US lifts blockade, ceasefire by April 30 unlikely
Iran’s UN ambassador says Tehran is open to talks if the US removes the blockade. Ceasefire by April 30 is...
Trump urges Fed nominee Warsh to cut rates despite low market confidence
President Trump has publicly urged Fed nominee Kevin Warsh to cut interest rates immediately. The likelihood of a 25 basis...
Iran rejects ceasefire extension, US blames Mojtaba Khamenei
Iran has rejected a ceasefire extension, with the US identifying Mojtaba Khamenei as the primary obstacle. The odds of a...
Iran Revolutionary Guards warn of ‘silent battlefield’ amid ceasefire doubts
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards are stressing vigilance amid what they call a “silent battlefield.” The odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by...
BlackRock buys $900M in Bitcoin, boosting April 2026 $80K odds
BlackRock purchased $900 million in Bitcoin through its iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) ETF, and the Polymarket contract for Bitcoin reaching...
Trump extends Iran ceasefire indefinitely, naval blockade remains
Trump indefinitely extended the ceasefire with Iran just before its expiration. The ceasefire-by-April-30 market sits at 15% YES, down from...
Iran ready to strike as US ceasefire odds fall
Iran’s military command has warned it is ready to strike “pre-designated targets” if the US makes any move. The ceasefire-by-April-30...
