Warsh’s Senate testimony boosts US 10Y yields, dims Fed rate cut hopes
Kevin Warsh’s Senate testimony has moved US 10-year Treasury yields, and the Polymarket odds of a 25 basis point Fed...
Prediction Markets
Military planners meet in London to discuss reopening Strait of Hormuz
Military planners from over 30 countries are meeting in London to discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz, according to the...
Iran shifts to military-security governance amid rising instability risks
Time magazine published an analysis of Iran’s shift toward a military-security decision-making structure. The odds of the Iranian regime falling...
Bitcoin falls below $75,500 amid US-Iran tensions
Bitcoin slipped under $75,500 as U.S.–Iran tensions escalated, pushing the odds of Bitcoin reaching $80,000 in April down to 33.5%...
Bitcoin exchange reserves hit lowest since 2017, institutional interest grows
Bitcoin exchange reserves have dropped to 2.679 million BTC, the lowest since December 2017. The odds of Bitcoin reaching $80,000...
Iran cancels talks in Pakistan, escalating US tensions
Iranian hardliner Ali Gholhaki rejected US demands on Tehran’s nuclear program and Strait of Hormuz management, citing these as reasons...
Pakistan thanks Trump for US-Iran ceasefire extension amid market caution
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir thanked President Trump for extending the US-Iran ceasefire. The...
North Korea’s Lazarus Group launders $290M in crypto via Ethereum, Bitcoin
Hackers linked to North Korea’s Lazarus Group have laundered $290 million in stolen crypto via Ethereum and Bitcoin. Bitcoin reaching...
Trump extends Iran ceasefire, cites fractured Iranian government
Trump has extended the Iran ceasefire, citing a “fractured” Iranian government. The odds of the US announcing an end to...
US-Iran ceasefire odds slip as military operations continue
U.S. military operations against Iran have been tactically successful but strategically ineffective, with ceasefire odds now at 21.5% YES on...
Kalshi and Polymarket Enter the Crypto Race to Launch Perpetual Futures
Two of the largest prediction market platforms in the United States are set to enter the crypto derivatives space within...
Kalshi and Polymarket Enter the Crypto Race to Launch Perpetual Futures
Two of the largest prediction market platforms in the United States are set to enter the crypto derivatives space within...
Kalshi and Polymarket Enter the Crypto Race to Launch Perpetual Futures
Two of the largest prediction market platforms in the United States are set to enter the crypto derivatives space within...
Kalshi and Polymarket Enter the Crypto Race to Launch Perpetual Futures
Two of the largest prediction market platforms in the United States are set to enter the crypto derivatives space within...
New York Sues Coinbase and Gemini Over Alleged Illegal Prediction Market Gambling Operations
New York Attorney General Letitia James has filed lawsuits against Coinbase Financial Markets and Gemini Titan, alleging that both companies...
