US C-17s land in Cyprus as Iran ceasefire talks falter
Four US C-17 aircraft landed in Cyprus with 72 hours left until the ceasefire expires. The market for a US-Iran...
Prediction Markets
Iran refuses talks amid US naval blockade, closing diplomatic channel
Iran has declared it will not send a negotiating delegation as long as the US naval blockade persists. The April...
Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, impacting oil markets amid supply concerns
Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has rattled oil-related prediction markets, but the odds of WTI Crude Oil hitting...
Iran halts oil flow through Strait of Hormuz, disrupting 20% of global supply
At least 13 oil tankers turned back from the Strait of Hormuz after Iranian warnings, interrupting approximately 20% of global...
Trump threatens to destroy Iran’s infrastructure if talks fail
President Trump threatened to destroy Iran’s infrastructure if negotiations fail, pushing the US-Iran ceasefire breakdown market to 99.6% YES, up...
Iran signals potential threat to Bab el-Mandeb strait amid missile arsenal boost
Iran’s renewed threats to target global straits, including Bab el-Mandeb, have moved prediction market odds. Bab el-Mandeb closure by April...
Trump, Iran talks to continue in Islamabad tomorrow amid ceasefire hopes
President Trump announced that negotiations between the US and Iran will continue in Islamabad tomorrow. The market for a ceasefire...
Trump, Waltz clash over JD Vance’s role in Iran talks amid security concerns
Trump claims JD Vance won’t attend Iran talks due to security concerns, but Mike Waltz says Vance is leading the...
Iran hints at Strait of Hormuz closure as US considers tanker seizures
Iran has hinted it could close the Strait of Hormuz while the US considers tanker seizures, pushing the US-Iran ceasefire...
Trump vows retaliation after Iran shoots down US F-15 jet
Trump’s angry response to Iran’s shootdown of a U.S. F-15 jet points to continued conflict. The market for military action...
Dutch PM announces European mission in Strait of Hormuz amid UK warship uncertainty
The Dutch prime minister announced a European-led mission in the Strait of Hormuz following a Paris meeting. The odds of...
Iran blocks oil tankers in Hormuz as UK warship deployment odds dip
Israel has sectioned off the part of southern Lebanon it controls into three zones, and Iran’s military has stopped two...
Iran blocks two tankers in Strait of Hormuz amid US Navy escort speculation
Iran’s armed forces stopped two tankers from transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday. The odds of US Navy escorts...
Rumen Radev leads Bulgaria’s parliamentary election, coalition talks crucial
Bulgarians voted in their eighth parliamentary election in five years, with Rumen Radev emerging as the frontrunner. The odds of...
US deploys sea drones to counter mine threats in Strait of Hormuz
The U.S. military has deployed autonomous sea drones to address mine threats in the Strait of Hormuz. Odds for 80...
