Iranian officials in Pakistan for US talks, possible ceasefire extension
Iranian officials arrived in Pakistan for US talks, suggesting a possible ceasefire extension. The market for a ceasefire extension by...
Prediction Markets
Iran rejects second round of US talks, impacting uranium enrichment market
Iran has refused to participate in a second round of talks with the US, according to IRNA. The odds of...
Iran expects ceasefire extension with US, plans talks in Pakistan
Iran’s National Security Committee head announced expectations for a ceasefire extension with the US and plans for talks in Pakistan....
Trump’s potential Islamabad visit coincides with drop in US-Iran peace deal odds
Trump’s potential visit to Islamabad for talks with Iran’s president has coincided with a sharp drop in peace deal odds....
Iran demands national interest in talks, US oil sanction relief unlikely
Iran’s National Security Committee is demanding that negotiations conform to national interests, and the market for Trump agreeing to Iranian...
Netanyahu says US-Israeli efforts against Iran ongoing, no end in sight
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu declared that US-Israeli efforts against Iran are “not over yet,” and the market on Trump announcing...
Tui Cruises ships transit Strait of Hormuz amid 2026 Iran war
Tui Cruises reports two ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz. The market predicting fewer than 10 ships transiting between...
President vows all means to end Middle East conflict amid ceasefire talks
The president’s vow to use all means to end the Middle Eastern conflict comes amid ongoing diplomatic talks. The probability...
US C-17s land in Cyprus as Iran ceasefire talks falter
Four US C-17 aircraft landed in Cyprus with 72 hours left until the ceasefire expires. The market for a US-Iran...
Iran refuses talks amid US naval blockade, closing diplomatic channel
Iran has declared it will not send a negotiating delegation as long as the US naval blockade persists. The April...
Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, impacting oil markets amid supply concerns
Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has rattled oil-related prediction markets, but the odds of WTI Crude Oil hitting...
Iran halts oil flow through Strait of Hormuz, disrupting 20% of global supply
At least 13 oil tankers turned back from the Strait of Hormuz after Iranian warnings, interrupting approximately 20% of global...
Trump threatens to destroy Iran’s infrastructure if talks fail
President Trump threatened to destroy Iran’s infrastructure if negotiations fail, pushing the US-Iran ceasefire breakdown market to 99.6% YES, up...
Iran signals potential threat to Bab el-Mandeb strait amid missile arsenal boost
Iran’s renewed threats to target global straits, including Bab el-Mandeb, have moved prediction market odds. Bab el-Mandeb closure by April...
Trump, Iran talks to continue in Islamabad tomorrow amid ceasefire hopes
President Trump announced that negotiations between the US and Iran will continue in Islamabad tomorrow. The market for a ceasefire...
