Strait of Hormuz traffic remains blocked as ceasefire expiration looms
The odds of Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by April 30 sit at 21.5% YES, reflecting trader skepticism as the...
Prediction Markets
Iran denies new talks, contradicts Trump on negotiations
Iran publicly denied any new talks are scheduled after last weekend’s failed Islamabad meeting, contradicting Trump’s statement about imminent negotiations....
Iranian President asserts nuclear rights, impacting April enrichment deal odds
The Iranian President told ISNA that Iran will not give up its nuclear rights, and the market for Iran agreeing...
Hezbollah prioritizes battlefield over diplomacy, impacting US-Iran talks
Hezbollah declared that battlefield conditions, not diplomacy, will determine its conflict with Israel, pushing the odds of a US-Iran diplomatic...
Iran’s uranium enrichment stalls US talks, ceasefire odds fall
Iran’s refusal to abandon uranium enrichment has stalled U.S. negotiations. The ceasefire-by-April-30 market is at 37.5% YES, down from 59%...
Iran retains drone, missile capabilities amid high tensions with Israel
US intelligence reports that Iran retains significant drone and missile capabilities. The Polymarket contract on military action against Israel by...
Ark Invest Taps Kalshi Data, Says Prediction Markets Could Reshape Future of Investing
Key Takeaways: Ark Invest is using Kalshi data to sharpen event-driven research signals. Prediction markets could boost active stock picking...
Iran’s Supreme Leader faces internal divisions amid regime stability concerns
Mojtaba Khamenei faces internal divisions as Iran’s Supreme Leader, but the market for the Iranian regime falling by May 31...
Iran re-closes Strait of Hormuz, halting commercial shipping
Iran has re-closed the Strait of Hormuz, making it commercially unusable. The likelihood of 80 ships transiting by April 30...
Trump’s social media posts disrupt US-Iran peace talks, April deal odds fall
Trump’s social media posts mixing profanity and Islamic prayer have rattled US-Iran negotiations, pushing the odds for a permanent peace...
US officials warn of potential conflict with Iran if peace talks fail
U.S. officials have indicated that conflict with Iran could resume imminently if peace talks fail. The odds of Trump announcing...
US Navy deploys AI drones in Strait of Hormuz amid rising tensions
The US Navy’s Task Force 59 has deployed AI-driven drones to monitor vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. The market...
Mandelson scandal prompts calls for Starmer’s resignation amid leadership scrutiny
The Foreign Secretary’s revelation about Mandelson’s vetting concerns has stirred calls for Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s resignation. The market on...
Iran rejects US demand to transfer enriched nuclear material
An Iranian deputy foreign minister dismissed any possibility of transferring enriched nuclear material to the US, calling American demands excessive....
Bulgaria to hold eighth election since 2021 as Radev eyes prime minister role
Bulgaria votes in its eighth election since 2021 this Sunday. The market for Rumen Radev becoming Prime Minister sits at...
