Iran re-closes Strait of Hormuz, halting commercial shipping
Iran has re-closed the Strait of Hormuz, making it commercially unusable. The likelihood of 80 ships transiting by April 30...
Prediction Markets
Trump’s social media posts disrupt US-Iran peace talks, April deal odds fall
Trump’s social media posts mixing profanity and Islamic prayer have rattled US-Iran negotiations, pushing the odds for a permanent peace...
US officials warn of potential conflict with Iran if peace talks fail
U.S. officials have indicated that conflict with Iran could resume imminently if peace talks fail. The odds of Trump announcing...
US Navy deploys AI drones in Strait of Hormuz amid rising tensions
The US Navy’s Task Force 59 has deployed AI-driven drones to monitor vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. The market...
Mandelson scandal prompts calls for Starmer’s resignation amid leadership scrutiny
The Foreign Secretary’s revelation about Mandelson’s vetting concerns has stirred calls for Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s resignation. The market on...
Iran rejects US demand to transfer enriched nuclear material
An Iranian deputy foreign minister dismissed any possibility of transferring enriched nuclear material to the US, calling American demands excessive....
Bulgaria to hold eighth election since 2021 as Radev eyes prime minister role
Bulgaria votes in its eighth election since 2021 this Sunday. The market for Rumen Radev becoming Prime Minister sits at...
Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, contradicts foreign minister’s open claim
Iran’s military and government are publicly contradicting each other over the Strait of Hormuz: the IRGC declared it closed while...
US Navy prepares to seize Iran-linked ships as peace talks falter
The US Navy is preparing to seize ships tied to Iran in international waters, with officials warning the conflict could...
Iran to reopen airspace in phases amid US-Israeli de-escalation
Iran’s airspace will reopen in four stages, the Deputy Head of Civil Aviation Organization confirms. The ceasefire-by-April-30 market sits at...
Senator Scott backs Hormuz blockade, complicating US-China-Iran dynamics
Senator Rick Scott’s backing for the Strait of Hormuz blockade signals continued U.S. support for maintaining it. The odds of...
US ramps up naval operations in Strait of Hormuz, plans to seize Iran-linked ships
The US is ramping up naval operations in the Strait of Hormuz, with plans to seize Iran-linked ships. The odds...
Trump’s nuclear comment impacts US-Iran peace deal market, odds drop sharply
Trump’s comment on retrieving Iranian “nuclear dust” after any deal has driven the April 22 permanent peace deal market down...
Iran retains 40% of drones, 60% of missiles despite 13,000 strikes
After more than 13,000 strikes, Iran still holds roughly 40% of its attack drones and 60% of its missiles. The...
KelpDAO exploit causes AAVE ETH pool to utilization
The KelpDAO exploit created bad debt on Aave after the attacker deposited RSETH to borrow ETH. Ethereum utilization on Aave...
