Iran declares Strait of Hormuz open, boosting normalization bets
Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz is open, and the Strait of Hormuz Traffic Normalization market jumped to 50% YES...
Prediction Markets
Iran rejects US demands, stalling uranium enrichment deal talks
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh confirmed Tehran’s refusal to meet US demands, halting hopes for a uranium enrichment agreement....
Trump signals no imminent end to Hormuz blockade amid ongoing talks
Trump’s comments on Iran suggest no imminent end to the Hormuz blockade. Odds of lifting the blockade by May 31...
Iran keeps Strait of Hormuz open as Trump claims mine clearance, nuclear pause
Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi announced the Strait of Hormuz is “completely open,” but Trump followed with claims of mine clearance...
Iran reimposes control over Strait of Hormuz, fires on tanker
Tehran reimposed control over the Strait of Hormuz, with IRGC gunboats firing on a tanker. Strait of Hormuz traffic returning...
Trump dismisses Iran’s military, doubts ceasefire extension
President Trump spoke dismissively about Iran’s military capabilities, casting doubt on a ceasefire extension. The odds of a US-Iran permanent...
Senator Cramer: US nears Bitcoin and crypto legislation passage
Senator Kevin Cramer has indicated that the US is nearing passage of Bitcoin and crypto legislation. Polymarket odds for Bitcoin...
Trump demands Israel halt Lebanon airstrikes, sparking Netanyahu crisis
Trump’s demand for Israel to halt its airstrikes in Lebanon has triggered a political crisis in the Netanyahu government, pushing...
Iran refuses to end uranium enrichment, stalling diplomatic progress
Iran’s refusal to relinquish its enrichment rights has moved the odds on an Iran uranium enrichment agreement by April 30,...
Iran confirms no date for further US talks, deepening diplomatic standoff
Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister confirmed no date has been set for further Iran-US talks, deepening the diplomatic standoff. The odds...
UK’s Cooper calls for resumption of Strait of Hormuz shipping amid US-Iran tensions
UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper called for a full resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing...
UNICEF: Israeli fire kills two water truck drivers in Gaza
Two water truck drivers were killed by Israeli fire in Gaza, according to UNICEF. The market for Netanyahu’s potential exit...
Gunfire reported as two vessels attempt to cross Strait of Hormuz
Two vessels attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz have reported gunfire incidents. The likelihood of the UK sending warships...
UN Security Council to meet after Russian shelling in Ukraine
The UN Security Council will convene following Ukraine’s request to address Russian shelling and civilian casualties. The odds of a...
US Navy destroyers transit Strait of Hormuz amid Iranian threats
Two U.S. Navy destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz on April 11 despite Iranian threats, but the Polymarket contract on...
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