Japan’s rate hikes pressure yen, BOJ unlikely to cut rates by April 2026
ADB President Masato Kanda warned that Japan’s gradual rate hikes are putting pressure on the yen, and the Polymarket contract...
Prediction Markets
Iran marks 100 days since crackdown with regime stability unchanged
Iran has reached 100 days since its January crackdown on protests. The market on whether the Iranian regime will fall...
Iran maintains Strait of Hormuz blockade amid US-Iran tensions
Conflicting messages from the US and Iran about the Strait of Hormuz have driven a sharp drop in prediction market...
Iran conflict closes Strait of Hormuz, impacting global oil supply routes
The war in Iran and recent Democratic electoral victories are putting pressure on oil markets. The contract for WTI Crude...
$8.8B in crypto longs at risk if Bitcoin nears $67,180 CME gap
$8.88 billion in crypto long positions face liquidation if Bitcoin drops to close the $67,180 CME gap, a scenario that...
Iran military dismisses foreign minister’s Hormuz reopening claims amid tensions
Iran’s military slammed its own Foreign Minister over Strait of Hormuz reopening claims, and the odds for Iranian military action...
$800M oil short placed before Iran reopens Strait of Hormuz, prices fall to $80
Someone placed an $800 million short on oil just before Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz was open, sending oil...
Morgan Stanley launches first US bank-affiliated Bitcoin ETF on NYSE Arca
Morgan Stanley has launched the MSBT Bitcoin ETF on NYSE Arca, the first U.S. bank-affiliated spot Bitcoin exchange-traded product. The...
Lebanon to investigate UNIFIL attack amid Hezbollah tensions, Macron says
Lebanon has pledged to investigate the UNIFIL attack, while Polymarket contracts on Israeli military action in Beirut by April 1,...
Iran reopens Strait of Hormuz, oil prices drop to $80 per barrel
Iran’s Foreign Minister announced yesterday that the Strait of Hormuz is fully open, causing oil prices to fall to $80...
Iran holds firm in Islamabad talks, no compromise on uranium enrichment
Iran’s Supreme National Security Council declared no compromise in the Islamabad talks. The odds for Iran agreeing to end uranium...
Ukraine targets Russian oil infrastructure, threatening 40% export capacity
Ukraine hit Russian oil infrastructure across multiple targets, including refineries, a Crimea oil depot, and a Baltic Sea port. The...
US envoy criticizes Israel’s strategy, hints at diplomatic shift with Iran
US Ambassador Thomas Barrack denounced Israel’s “kinetic elimination” strategy at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, pointing toward a diplomatic pivot. Iran’s...
Iran declares Strait of Hormuz open, boosting normalization bets
Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz is open, and the Strait of Hormuz Traffic Normalization market jumped to 50% YES...
Iran rejects US demands, stalling uranium enrichment deal talks
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh confirmed Tehran’s refusal to meet US demands, halting hopes for a uranium enrichment agreement....
