Iran rejects new US talks amid “maximalist” demands, raising escalation risk
Iranian Deputy FM Saeed Khatibzadeh says Tehran won’t engage in new talks with the US due to Washington’s “maximalist” demands....
Prediction Markets
Israel probes soldiers over suspected links to Iran amid rising tensions
Israel is investigating four IDF soldiers for allegedly passing information to Iran, pushing the odds of Israeli military action against...
Crypto hacks hit record $450M in two weeks, Bitcoin market unfazed
The pace of crypto hacks is at an all-time high, with $450 million lost across 45 protocols in two weeks....
Russia open to removing Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, says Rosatom CEO
Rosatom CEO Aleksey Likhachev confirmed Russia remains open to removing Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile. The market for the US obtaining...
Iran rejects Trump’s claim on uranium stockpile removal
President Trump announced plans to remove Iran’s enriched uranium stockpiles, but Tehran promptly rejected the claim. The market on Iran...
Iran targets 36 merchant vessels, escalating Strait of Hormuz tensions
Iran has reportedly targeted at least 36 merchant vessels since February 28, escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. The...
CENTCOM blockade pressures IRGC, Kharg Island control in question by June 30
Ram Ahluwalia suggests CENTCOM’s blockade is strategically squeezing the IRGC. The market on Kharg Island no longer being under Iranian...
Japan’s rate hikes pressure yen, BOJ unlikely to cut rates by April 2026
ADB President Masato Kanda warned that Japan’s gradual rate hikes are putting pressure on the yen, and the Polymarket contract...
Iran marks 100 days since crackdown with regime stability unchanged
Iran has reached 100 days since its January crackdown on protests. The market on whether the Iranian regime will fall...
Iran maintains Strait of Hormuz blockade amid US-Iran tensions
Conflicting messages from the US and Iran about the Strait of Hormuz have driven a sharp drop in prediction market...
Iran conflict closes Strait of Hormuz, impacting global oil supply routes
The war in Iran and recent Democratic electoral victories are putting pressure on oil markets. The contract for WTI Crude...
$8.8B in crypto longs at risk if Bitcoin nears $67,180 CME gap
$8.88 billion in crypto long positions face liquidation if Bitcoin drops to close the $67,180 CME gap, a scenario that...
Iran military dismisses foreign minister’s Hormuz reopening claims amid tensions
Iran’s military slammed its own Foreign Minister over Strait of Hormuz reopening claims, and the odds for Iranian military action...
$800M oil short placed before Iran reopens Strait of Hormuz, prices fall to $80
Someone placed an $800 million short on oil just before Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz was open, sending oil...
Morgan Stanley launches first US bank-affiliated Bitcoin ETF on NYSE Arca
Morgan Stanley has launched the MSBT Bitcoin ETF on NYSE Arca, the first U.S. bank-affiliated spot Bitcoin exchange-traded product. The...
