Iran’s Ghalibaf dismisses Trump’s claims, tensions rise over Hormuz blockade
Iran’s Speaker of the Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, dismissed President Trump’s recent claims as false, pointing to continued friction over...
Prediction Markets
Trump announces Strait of Hormuz blockade, oil supply disruption expected
President Trump has announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, set to take effect later today, April 18, 2026....
Trump pledges US aid to Lebanon, opposes Iran tolls on Strait of Hormuz
Trump promised US aid to stabilize Lebanon and opposed Iranian tolls on the Strait of Hormuz. The Iran operations announcement...
XRP classified as digital commodity, enabling US exchange listings and ETFs
The U.S. SEC and CFTC have classified XRP as a digital commodity, but the Polymarket contract for XRP surpassing $1.80...
Strait of Hormuz reopens, S&P 500 hits record highs, oil prices fall
The Strait of Hormuz has reopened, and the Polymarket S&P 500 up or down on April 14 contract sits at...
US hints at potential deal with Iran amid uncertain stance
Iran’s stance remains unclear as the US hints at a deal with Tehran, while the ceasefire-by-April-30 market is at 47.5%...
Iran’s “mosquito fleet” impacts Strait of Hormuz shipping contracts
Iran’s “mosquito fleet” of small attack craft, central to its anti-access/area-denial strategy, is driving market movement in Strait of Hormuz...
Meta to cut 8,000 jobs amid big tech cost-cutting efforts
Meta Platforms plans to cut 8,000 jobs, and Trump’s Strait of Hormuz announcement has shifted geopolitical expectations. Crude oil predictions...
Iran declares Strait of Hormuz open, oil prices fall over 10%
Iran’s announcement that the Strait of Hormuz is “completely open” has sent oil prices down over 10%, and prediction markets...
Iran-linked ships cross US blockade line in Gulf of Oman
Iran-linked ships have crossed a US blockade line in the Gulf of Oman. The market on “Trump announces US blockade...
Moscow’s Soviet-style tactics dim Russia-Ukraine ceasefire prospects
Daniel Fried’s comments on Moscow’s return to Soviet-style escalation tactics have pushed the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire outlook slightly lower. The ceasefire...
Iran ties Strait of Hormuz access to ceasefire terms
Iran is tying Strait of Hormuz access to ceasefire terms. The market for diplomatic meetings with Iran by April 30...
Trump frustration raises questions about Netanyahu’s political future
Trump’s dissatisfaction with Israeli actions has sparked speculation about Netanyahu’s tenure, with odds for Netanyahu stepping down by June 30...
Antalya Quartet backs Pakistan’s mediation in US-Iran talks
The Antalya Quartet has endorsed Pakistan’s mediation efforts between the US and Iran, but the market for a US-Iran diplomatic...
Trump declines NATO aid in Persian Gulf, strains US-Europe ties
US President Donald Trump declined NATO’s offer of assistance in the Persian Gulf, pushing odds of a US withdrawal from...
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