Iran keeps Strait of Hormuz closed, disrupting US diplomatic efforts
Iran’s decision to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed has disrupted diplomatic efforts, and the likelihood of Donald Trump announcing...
Prediction Markets
Iran-US ceasefire talks near completion, need extension: Turkey’s FM
Turkey’s foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, stated that Iran-U.S. talks are close to completion but still require a ceasefire extension. The...
Iran’s Pezeshkian defends nuclear rights, challenges US demands
Iran’s President Pezeshkian affirmed Iran’s nuclear rights under the NPT, challenging US demands. Trump’s agreement to Iranian demands in April...
Solana adds 1.5M daily users monthly, price remains stagnant amid tensions
Solana has added 1.5 million daily active users each month for the past three months, but the network’s growth hasn’t...
Qatar warns of global shock as Iran tightens control over Strait of Hormuz
Qatar’s finance minister warned that a global shock from Iran’s tightening control over the Strait of Hormuz is “not far...
Iran insists on nuclear rights, complicating US negotiations
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s assertion of Iran’s nuclear rights has complicated US negotiations. The probability of Iran agreeing to end...
$341M liquidated from crypto market amid Middle East tensions
A total of $341 million was liquidated from the crypto market in the last 24 hours amid heightened tensions in...
Strait of Hormuz traffic remains blocked as ceasefire expiration looms
The odds of Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by April 30 sit at 21.5% YES, reflecting trader skepticism as the...
Iran denies new talks, contradicts Trump on negotiations
Iran publicly denied any new talks are scheduled after last weekend’s failed Islamabad meeting, contradicting Trump’s statement about imminent negotiations....
Iranian President asserts nuclear rights, impacting April enrichment deal odds
The Iranian President told ISNA that Iran will not give up its nuclear rights, and the market for Iran agreeing...
Hezbollah prioritizes battlefield over diplomacy, impacting US-Iran talks
Hezbollah declared that battlefield conditions, not diplomacy, will determine its conflict with Israel, pushing the odds of a US-Iran diplomatic...
Iran’s uranium enrichment stalls US talks, ceasefire odds fall
Iran’s refusal to abandon uranium enrichment has stalled U.S. negotiations. The ceasefire-by-April-30 market is at 37.5% YES, down from 59%...
Iran retains drone, missile capabilities amid high tensions with Israel
US intelligence reports that Iran retains significant drone and missile capabilities. The Polymarket contract on military action against Israel by...
Ark Invest Taps Kalshi Data, Says Prediction Markets Could Reshape Future of Investing
Key Takeaways: Ark Invest is using Kalshi data to sharpen event-driven research signals. Prediction markets could boost active stock picking...
Iran’s Supreme Leader faces internal divisions amid regime stability concerns
Mojtaba Khamenei faces internal divisions as Iran’s Supreme Leader, but the market for the Iranian regime falling by May 31...
